Fact one: Hezbullah is rebuilding south of the Litani River, right under the noses of the UN Peacekeeping force, which surprises us not at all.
The head of the research division of Military Intelligence, Brigadier General Yossi Baidatz, told lawmakers Monday that Hezbollah is rebuilding its forces south of the Litani River in Lebanon, despite the presence of international peacekeepers in the area.
[…]”Hezbollah continues to rehabilitate, from a military and a social perspective. It is acquiring a large number of weapons from Iran and Syria,” Baidatz said.
“It is preparing itself for possible conflict in the summer, but is not interested in this as it aspires to a period of calm in which to rehabilitate.”
Fact two: Syria asks Iran to “coordinate attacks” against Israel.
Syrian President Bashar Assad has called for “better cooperation” between Damascus and Tehran in “the confrontation with the Zionist regime and the USA,” according to a report published on Sunday by Iran’s official state news agency, IRNA.
The report, which was reproduced on the personal blog of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, quoted a telephone conversation between the two leaders, after Ahmadinejad congratulated Assad on winning the Syrian elections.
Fact three: Hamas has imported tons of weapons, dug numerous tunnels and bunkers, and has readied Gaza for a Hezbullah-style war with Israel.
According to Baidatz, “Hamas is satisfied with the outcome of the current fighting against Israel, as it has resulted in the desertion of Israeli towns. They understand that Israel will not launch a deep ground incursion [into Gaza].”
Baidatz warned that Hamas is continuing with preparations for a major attack, and there have been many alerts over attempts to kidnap Israelis.
Fact four: The IDF expects a two-front war.
“The IDF is preparing for an escalation on the Palestinian front and the northern front,” IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi stated Tuesday during a drill at the Shizafon army base in the south.
“The army’s next objective is to improve its readiness and fitness, while continuing to fight terror,” Lieutenant General Ashkenazi told officer training course cadets who came to watch the drill. “The drill here displays very impressive abilities.”
This summer will be a hot one.
I think Hamas, at least, is miscalculating. I think this year the Israeli army will go on the ground in Gaza, or perhaps attack from the air with minimal concern for civilian casualties. And with a little bit of cooperation from Egypt (not a given, but possible) Hamas has no where to go, unlike Hezbollah.
The IDF will have to be on the ground along the Lebanon-Syria border, throughout Judea and Samaria, as well as in Gaza. The big question is what character the missile war with Iran take.
chsw