The upcoming Mideast war

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took a trip to Syria and met up with the local bad boys, promising death and destruction for Israel in America in, of course, vaguely-worded terms that the Juan Coles of the world will use to say he doesn’t really mean he wants to destroy Israel.

At a joint press conference with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that “Syria and Iran are aspiring for this summer to be hot by virtue of the victories that will be attained by the peoples of the region… and the enemies of the peoples of the region are on their way to perdition and defeat.”

You see? It doesn’t mean that Hezbollah is going to launch attacks on Israel, or that Hamas is going to launch attacks on Israel, or that Iranian soldiers will be in Lebanon and Gaza launching attacks on Israel, and in Iraq launching attacks on America. It just means that the summer is going to be a hot one. Literally. Get it?

And Iran is denying that it’s going to give Syria a secret $1 billion arms deal.

Iran will lay out $1 billion to procure for Syria advanced weapons and assist it in nuclear research and the development of chemical weapons, according to a report published yesterday in the London-based daily Al-Shark al-Awsat.

The reports says the strategic cooperation agreement between Damascus and Tehran was signed during the visit late last week by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to Syria. The report describes the cooperation between the countries as including military, economic, scientific and technical aspects.

Because what possible reason could there be for Iran to help Syria arm itself into a country that could threaten, oh, Israel and Iraq?

The military cooperation includes Iranian funding for the procurement from Russia of MiG-31 fighter planes, Sukhoi-24 attack aircraft, helicopters and T-72 tanks. Iran will also provide Syria with technical assistance in nuclear research and the development of chemical weapons.

Relations between the two countries have become increasingly close since the coming of Bashar Assad to power in 2000.

According to reports, Iranian pilgrims visit holy sites in Syria and are renovating them, while Iranian investors have made inroads in the Syrian economy. The newspaper states that the ties between the two countries are extensive and constitute a major upgrade in their relations.

There’s nothing to fear. You see? It’s all just religion.

In addition to the procurement of arms for Syria, Iran has promised to build a factory for the manufacture of medium-range missiles in Syria, and buy more arms on its behalf from Belarus and North Korea. Iran will also supply Syria with armored vehicles and tanks made by its local military industries, as well as missiles for the Syrian navy. Syrian naval and air force officers have also been invited to participate in training in Iran.

The report in Saudi-owned Al-Shark al-Awsat was written by Ali Reza Nourizadeh, a well-known Iranian opposition figure who recently wrote extensively on the defection to the West of a senior Iranian General, Ali Askari.

That was the report. Now here’s the denial. (And please note how the AP practically issues Iran’s press release for them.)

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman on Sunday dismissed as a “media game” recent reports of a secret arms deal with Syria allegedly made in return for an agreement that Damascus would not hold peace talks with Israel.

Mohammad Ali Hosseini refused to provide confirmation of the deal and questioned how the media would know about it if it was confidential.

“This is a media game,” said Hosseini during his weekly news briefing. “It is not confirmed.”

The Arabic newspaper Asharq al-Awsat reported Saturday that Iran would provide $1 billion to Syria for advanced weapons procurement and would assist the country with nuclear research and the development of chemical weapons, with the understanding that Damascus would not negotiate peace with Israel.

Let us note that paragraph four contains the information on the deal, and that most “World News” sections of your local paper carry only the first three paragraphs of the AP story, and rarely more than five.

The most interesting analysis on the arms deal comes from Ha’aretz:

The report of Iranian opposition figure Dr. Ali Reza Nourizadeh in the London-based daily Asharq Al-Awsat regarding the arms deal between Iran and Syria should be read with great caution.

First, the figures: in order to procure the weapons and equipment mentioned in the report, especially the MiG-31E fighters and the 400 T-72 tanks, Syria needs four or five times the sum that it is allegedly receiving from Iran. Syria still owes Russia $3.6 billion (even after Russia wiped out 70 percent of Syria’s debt for 2005). So, where will Syria find $4 billion to fund the rest of the deal? There is no answer to this conundrum.

Is this even a new deal, or one which the Russian daily Kommersant reported in June? According to that report, Syria began delivery of MiG-31 fighters — an upgraded version of a fighter whose production stopped in 1994, and the deliveries are being made with aircraft from Russian air force stock. The Kommersant report said that a deal including MiG-31 and MiG-29M fighters was worth $1 billion, and claimed that the real end-user was Iran, with Damascus serving as a “straw company” that will only keep a portion of the aircraft.

Here’s the part that really makes you go “Hmmm”:

The defense agreement between Syria and Iran allows Tehran to keep its aircraft in Iran, with Syrian emblems and registry, but at Iran’s disposal. If this is the same deal reported in June, it is best to examine whether Russia, more than Iran, is the bad guy in the story, since such a deal means that Moscow is violating the United Nations sanctions against Iran.

That actually makes a lot of sense. The deal could very well be a way for Iran to get around international sanctions. But even so, it is in Iran’s best interests to prop up the Syrian government—so even if this analysis is right, Syria probably still gets a boost to its army as part of the price of the cover story.

There is also a report that Ahmadinejad paid Hamas millions of dollars to keep Gilad Shalit at least through the summer. Hamas, of course, denies this.

Abu Obeida, the group’s armed wing’s spokesman, denied reports that Iran had paid millions of dollars to Hamas leader in Syria Khaled Mashaal to hinder the release.

It’s Israel’s fault that the kidnapped soldier isn’t being released, you see.

A Hamas spokesman in Gaza said that the claims were baseless and that it was Israel who was the cause of a setback in talks for a prisoner exchange. If Israel would accept the deal’s conditions, Hamas would be ready to find a solution today, said the spokesman.

Taken all together, the news is not good. Iran continues in its path to control the Middle East, and the world continues in its path to cover its eyes and ears and say “I can’t hear you, la la la, what did you say?”

There was also a recent report that Iran would launch missiles at Israel if the U.S. or Israel attacks its nuclear plants. Hey, it worked for Iraq, which launched missiles at Israel with utter impunity. This time, I suspect, there would be retaliatory missiles from Israel. No way that ends well. In fact, the only way this whole scenario ends well is if Iranians get the gumption to overthrow their Mullahcracy. And I don’t see that happening anytime soon.