Barry Rubin writes about what is being done and why it needs to be done regarding the Iranian nuclear threat. (or here) What’s being attempted.
…it is the last moment for three other things:
* If international terms, if diplomatic and economic pressure is going to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons it has to be intensified right now or it will be too late to generate the needed non-military threat to Tehran.
* In technological terms, Iran is right on the verge of being able to build nuclear weapons all by itself without any more foreign help or equipment.
* In political terms, if Iranian leaders and people aren’t worried about the country’s isolation and the nuclear program’s high costs, they will more likely keep in power the regime’s most extreme faction—and the ones most likely to use nuclear weapons in the future. So in several real ways it is truly a moment of now or never, not because of an imminent attack but due to the fact that this era gives the last chance to avoid one.
President Bush isn’t war mongering when he talks about the possibility of World War III, he’s warning what could be if Iran isn’t stopped. But Prof Rubin goes on to argue, that nuclear weapons in the hand of Iran may be more effective as a looming threat than as actual means to attack enemies.
# Appeasement: Frightened by Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons and uncertain of Western protection, Arabic-speaking states will rush to meet Iran’s demands.
# This means they will be afraid to cooperate with U.S. policy or provide facilities for Western efforts to contain Iran. And that development will make them even less able to protect themselves against Tehran, further reinforcing the effect.
# Given Iran’s rejectionist stance, no Arab state or the Palestinian Authority would dare move toward peace with Israel. Even if you believe such a thing is possible now, forget about it for 20 or 30 years.
# Since Iran always favors higher oil prices (with Saudi Arabia, which already has lots of money, holding them down), the combination of Iranian pressure and heightened regional insecurity will send the cost of petroleum sky-high, far above anything hitherto dreamed.
# Intoxicated with a belief that Islamism is on the march to victory, tens and perhaps hundreds of thousands will join radical Islamist groups, either clients of Iran or independent ones.
He lists more possible consequences but these five are scary enough. And yet there are countries that are undermining even the American diplomatic efforts aimed at stopping the development of the Iranian nuclear bomb. Are they already being cowed by Iran? Or do they figure that they’ll be spared Iran’s wrath if they betray the United States now? Or have they simply not thought about the future?
Crossposted at Soccer Dad.
We’ve kicked this around for a while. The benefits include temporary elimination of a clear threat, respect from Middle Eastern states who seem not to have the resolve to do anything (although they are as threatened as Israel and the US), acquiescence to other acts of self-defense by Israel in the future, and others.
There are consequences to acting or not acting. These include inviting destruction versus possible civilian deaths in Iran and Israel (and in the US), political action (embargoes, blacklisting, economic sanctions, blockades, and others), international condemnation (so what else is new?), backstabbing by supposed allies, loss of oil supplies from the sellers to Israel, disruption of oil supplies to Europe and elsewhere, demands for reparations, and on and on.
And someone said, “But it might be a detriment to the peace process with the Palestinian Authority.” As to laugh because they provide no one with which to negotiate (sorry, Jeeeemy) because they are too busy scamming money and killing each other.
My question is “if we can figure this out and look at the cost/benefit analysis, where is Condi Rice and the rest of the State Department and where are the members of Congress who run in circles with their hands up screaming “do something, do something.”
And I won’t even get into the Tikkunistas.