Steven Erlanger’s Iran Casts Shadow on Mideast Talks is an analysis that emphasizes the role of Iran in the Annapolis talks yesterday.
First he quotes a view from the Arab world
“There is a genuine concern and fear among political classes in the Arab world that the Islamic trend hasn’t reached its plateau,†said Hisham Melhem, the Washington bureau chief for Al Arabiya television. “They worry that Iran and its allies act as if this may be the beginning of the end of America’s moment in the Middle East.â€Those concerns are linked in the minds of the region’s leaders to the Palestinian issue, he said. “They want to try for a resolution to an Israeli-Palestinian conflict that has always been the focal point for mobilization of Islamic and radical groups,†he said.
Then the Israeli view
Dan Gillerman, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, put it this way: “This is the summit of our hope and their fear. It’s our hope that at long last the Arab world will understand that the Israeli-Palestinian problem is not the core and can be solved, and their fear of Islamic extremism and Iran, which they call the Persian threat. This is what brought them here.â€
Actually the way Amb Gillerman put it was the exact opposite of the way Melhem put it. The latter said that the Israeli/Palestinian issue is what strengthens Iran, the former said that it was Iran that made the Arabs engage Israel in Annapolis.
Aaron David Miller who was unable to shepherd through a final peace treaty during his decade in government weighed in too.
Aaron David Miller, a former negotiator for the Clinton administration, said that while he applauded the effort at Annapolis, he doubted that the Bush administration “has the will and skill†to pull off a peace treaty. “The chances for a Palestinian state in George Bush’s term are slim to none,†he said. But the Annapolis gathering does have important regional significance.“For the Arab centrists, the new Middle East is a nasty one, and the Palestinian issue resonates emotionally and deeply,†he said.
At the top of the article Erlanger laid out what was important though,
…there is enormous relief among the many Sunni Arab countries in attendance that the United States has re-engaged in what they see as the larger and more important battle for Muslim hearts and minds.
When, pray tell, will the Arabs engage in the all important battle for Israeli hearts and minds? I don’t think it’s started quite yet.
via memeorandum, similar thoughts at A blog for all
Other views:
The NYT – Starting from Annapolis
If there is any hope of pulling this off, Mr. Bush and his secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, will have to invest their time, their reputation and their best arm-twisting, including offering bridging proposals to nudge both sides beyond their long-fixed positions. There’s no chance at all if Mr. Bush goes back to the sidelines.
This is a typically simplistic formulation. No amount of arm twisting over details will change anything unless there’s an Arab (not just Palestinian) change of heart.
Contentions – John Podhoretz – ANNAPOLIS: What It All Means
The open evidence so far indicates that the low-expectations summit has in fact met its low expectations, with the “lots of other nations present†business proving essentially meaningless except as a bragging point for the diplomats who got them there and a shopping opportunity for them and their wives at outlet malls and Tysons Corner. That doesn’t mean the State Department wouldn’t like it otherwise. But that doesn’t seem to be the story of this summit. If we’ve seen the worst of Annapolis — and I grant you we may not have; we won’t know for a few days — I think we can actually breathe a sigh of relief.
IOW, little ventured, something gained. (An aside: J-Pod’s making contentions int a “The Corner” wannabe. I think I preferred the discrete posts to the ongoing conversation.)
Washington Post – Glenn Kessler and Michael Abramowitz – Eyes Will Be on Bush At Talks on Mideast
When Bush first asked Rice to take over the State Department after the 2004 elections, during a weekend at Camp David, she quizzed him on only one policy issue: Was he willing to support the creation of a Palestinian state? The president gave an affirmative answer, which was important to her, according to people familiar with the conversation.”I wouldn’t be doing this if he weren’t deeply committed to it,” Rice told reporters last week. “I am his secretary of state.”
I guess this goes against the speculation (including mine), that this is an issue of “legacy.” Still what makes now such a propitious time?
Washington Post – David Ignatius – How Annapolis Helps
For starters, the document commits the parties to begin negotiations on a peace treaty “resolving all outstanding issues, including all core issues without exception.” The text unfortunately doesn’t specify what these unmentionables are, but negotiators understand that it does mean the two deal-breakers: Jerusalem and the right of return of Palestinian refugees. The prayers of Israelis that they wouldn’t have to talk about Jerusalem, and of Palestinians that they wouldn’t have to discuss the right of return, have not been answered.
But, of course, the issue of Israel’s right to exist is not something that the Palestinians (or the Arab world) have to address.
Shmuel Rosner – Ha’aretz – To Palestine via the side road
Meanwhile, off the main road, the fate of the Palestinian state will be decided – at a conference of the donor states – by nurturing orderly institutions and by quietly deploying the Palestinian Authority’s security forces street by street. The accusation constantly hurled at Arafat – that he did nothing during his term of office to improve the sewage system or transportation or life in the territories – is a charge that Abbas and even more so his prime minister Salam Fayyad have to avoid. The kind of talks Fayyad is holding with Defense Minister Ehud Barak, in the company of babysitter Tony Blair, are the key to genuine progress toward a Palestinian state. The commotion caused by the other subjects is a smoke screen that makes it possible for them to work, for the time being, in relative quiet.
Rosner argues that we ought to ignore the political maneuvering and pay attention to the changes on the ground. This is refreshing, for he isn’t overemphasizing the political. Still he seems to minimize the important political aspects too. Will Abbas (and his PA) continue to convince his people that Israeli is illegitimate? If so it really doesn’t matter how well the sanitation system is running, terror will continue. Will Olmert continue to insist that he’s right and ignore his electorate despite shaky coalition? Further concessions are going to be unpopular and Olmert has shown little inclination to convince the populace of the rightness of his actions. Really all depends on 1) his ability to keep his coalition together and 2) the PA showing (against all previous experience) that it is committed to peaceful coexistence.
The Jerusalem Post – Make Annapolis Work
Today, Bush and Olmert are to meet precisely on this topic. It will be the most important meeting of this diplomatic mission, even if it is not officially part of the Annapolis conference. At this meeting, Bush needs to hear from Olmert that Israel cannot accept a nuclear Iran, while Olmert needs to hear from Bush that neither can the US and, no less importantly, how Iran will be stopped. The extremists who cast a shadow over Annapolis and who impelled it, cannot be defeated otherwise.
In other words the main goal of Annapolis is to stop Iran. Apparently, even if military means are necessary.
Dennis Ross – USA Today – The Day after Annapolis
The road map dates from 2003 and has been moribund since. The obligations of the first phase — Israelis freezing all settlement activity and removing the impediments to Palestinian mobility, and Palestinians beginning to dismantle terrorist infrastructure and reforming their institutions — have altogether different meanings on the two sides. Each party defines its obligations minimally and the other side’s obligations maximally.
Dennis Ross – like Aaron David Miller – spent the better part of two administrations peace processing and he accomplished as much as President Bush did. He may not want anyone to look too closely at his record. (Yes, Oslo occurred during his tenure but 1) the basics of Olso were agreed upon before American got involved and 2) I don’t know that anyone would argue that Oslo was a major disaster.)
Yes, each party does what he says, but the idea that Israel ought to be increasing Palestinian mobility when the Palestinians are supporting terror is suicidal. Besides abandoning terror isn’t simply a procedural issue, it was the very basis of Oslo. The PLO would abandon terror and become legitimate. The former didn’t happen but the latter did. For Ross to put dismantling the “terror infrastucture” on the same level as any of the demands on Israel is disingenuous.
Dan Diker – Jerusalem Post – Peace Parks and Pipe Dreams
Political and economic peace making with the Palestinians can not be driven by Israeli, US and European enthusiasm alone. The Palestinian middle class must build its own economy free of threats by Palestinian terror groups and financial control by local warlords. But Israel and the international community must stop undermining the real chance for Palestinian economic development by forcing economic projects on the Palestinians before they secure their own cities and towns and establish a framework for a safe viable civil society, based on an empowered and peaceful middle and professional class.
Reasons why Rosner’s idea won’t work.
For me, I’d like to believe that Rosner is right, but the infrastructure and security arguments have been made before. I just don’t believe that Abbas and Fayyad are any more interested in co-existence than Arafat was. They owe their power and positions – no matter how precarious they are now – to rejectionism. That is the ideology of Palestinian nationalism.
I don’t believe that there can be peace until there is an acceptance of Israel. At best the process started in Annapolis will cause no real harm to Israel’s standing or security.
Crossposted on Soccer Dad.
