Ynet writer Guy Bechor says that Syria will not attack Israel, in spite of the actions—and messages—to the contrary seen lately.
Hizbullah’s success in paralyzing the north of Israel for over a month last summer left Bashar Assad with his mouth agape: He, with his lack of experience, saw this as proof that Israel could be defeated. This is why Assad has expedited Syria’s rearmament campaign in the past year.
Assad thought that in times of need he could reach some kind of victory over Israel by also paralyzing it through rocket fire, and in so doing would bring the issue of the Golan Heights on to the international agenda, getting it back “honorably” as one who did so through an impressive military maneuver.
The establishment of the international tribunal into the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, set to commence shortly, is of great concern to Assad, as it poses an existential threat to him personally and to the minority Alawite regime that he heads. As it is the way of the Syrians to extinguish fires by creating even greater ones, Israel justifiably feared that Syria was preparing for war before being blamed for the Hariri murder.
The welcome outcome to these warnings was that the IDF significantly boosted its preparedness level on the Golan Heights. We all read about the series of large-scale exercises the army carried out on the Golan. These public exercises were welcome, and they should be continued, because they led to an important development. The Syrians have been deterred. Deterrence has been reinstated. The rules of the game have been reset.
Israel made it clear to the Syrians that if Assad thinks that an attack on its sovereignty would be a walk in the park and that Israel would suffice with the hesitant responses that characterized the last war, it is mistaken. The IDF is an army positioned at the gates of Damascus, and not the other way around.
I hope he’s right. The real testing time will be immediately before the UN Hariri investigation takes place. That is when Syria is most likely to launch hostile action, either against Lebanon or Israel.
I’d speculate that the reall time of danger would be when Hamas starts a massive rocket attack on Israel, then Hezbollah joins in the fun. With Israel trying to put out two fires at opposite ends of the country Syria can pick a time to strike when Zahal has many troops committed to action elsewhere. This is why I think Israel needs to take out Hamas soon, at a time of Israel’s choosing, not her enemies’ choosing. Crush one threat then turn to face the others, using the central position and taking the initiative.