Wow, so yesterday’s concussion grenade was not anything major, but it was followed up by a major car bombing in a different part of town, an event that took the life of one of Lebanon’s most fiercely anti-Syrian generals. Was the first attack intended to distract the Lebanese security forces, and to provide an opening for the second attack?
The Washington Post (with no sense of irony) gives play to some of the hypocrisy here:
Asked about the culprit, shop owner Rafael shrugged his shoulders, a gesture conveying the anonymity of those behind the assassinations that have become part of the country’s political calculus. Government supporters blamed Syria, as they have in bombings that targeted eight prominent opponents of Syria in the past two years. Syria denied any role and suggested that Israel or its allies had a hand in the attack.Government opponents, led by the Shiite Muslim movement Hezbollah, denounced the attack, calling Hajj’s death “a great national loss.” One of their Christian allies, former general Michel Aoun, said Hajj had been his candidate to assume leadership of the army if parliament elected the present commander, Gen. Michel Suleiman, as president. While government opponents and supporters have agreed in principle on Suleiman succeeding former president Emile Lahoud, who stepped down Nov. 23 at the end of his term, negotiations have stalled over a comprehensive deal to resolve the crisis, the country’s worst since the 1975-90 civil war.
Israel did it and Hezbollah denounced it. Right.
The New York Times deserves credit for leaving Israel out of the story, and pointing to an ominous statement by a Syrian politician.
Some leading anti-Syrian politicians blamed Damascus for the killing, as they have for a series of political assassinations during the past three years. They pointed to comments made Tuesday by the Syrian vice president, Farouq Sharaa, who said that Syria’s friends in Lebanon were stronger than ever and that “no one in Lebanon, even with foreign support, can win the battle against Syria.â€
The Times has followed up the reporting with news of a crackdown in Syria.
The arrests followed Syria’s participation in the Middle East peace forum at Annapolis, Md., which was seen in the region as a coup for Syria and a sign of a thaw in relations between Mr. Assad and the White House.Emboldened by a sense that Syria’s tough anti-American policies have paid dividends, human rights advocates say, the authorities have turned to closing the last channels of public debate.
“This goes back to what we’ve always seen as a problem, that the opening with the West has never been contingent on Syria improving its human rights records,†Nadim Houry, who tracks Syria for Human Rights Watch, said. “It’s contingent on Syria cooperating on Lebanon, Iraq and the peace process.â€
Hmm, sense from a member of Human Rights Watch. And sentiments that have been expressed by a number of bloggers, that Annapolis has strengthened Bashar Assad’s hand.
Similarly Barry Rubin writes
Claims made often verge on the pitiful. For example, dozens of observers insisted that Syria’s presence at the Annapolis summit showed that it was splitting away from Iran, which opposed the meeting. They forget that Syria participated in a nine-year-long peace process that Iran opposed–including direct negotiations with Israel–without damaging in the slightest the Iran-Syria axis.Second, this kind of talk destroys years of effort to isolate and pressure Syria. The tough strategy is not some silly stubborn refusal to chat with Damascus but designed to deter the regime from adventurism, shore up Arab states’ opposition to it, and encourage Lebanese forces battling against again becoming a puppet of the dictator next door.
And it looks like the effort to get Syria to Annapolis has emboldened Assad rather than engaging him.
JoshuaPundit sees even larger forces at play:
This is a clear signal that Iran and Syria are not going to be content with just Suleiman in the presidency. They want control of the Lebanese military, and they want anti-Syrian PM Fuad Siniora out as well, and in fairly short order, with Hezbollah, Amal and the pro-Syrian factions assuming total control of Lebanon.This will ensure that Lebanon comes under the control of Syria and Iran, and that the UN tribunal implicating members of Basher Assad’s family and other top Syrian political figures in the 2005 assassination of ex-PM Rafiq Hariri goes nowhere.
Like Israel, Lebanon’s democracy is the chief casualty of the new `understanding’ engineered by the Saudis between Iran and the Bush Administration
Seraphic Secret worries about the implications for Israel.
Israel is now being surrounded and strangled in a terrorist vice: Gaza, Lebanon; now the Israeli government talks of dividing Jerusalem and turning Judea and Samaria over to the Arabs, which means a deadly encirclement by short-range weapons—snipers and mortars.
Outrageously Joshua Landis defends Syria. Michael Young on the other hand explains what Syria’s been up to.
Creating a vacuum is not a strategy; it is a tactic designed to bring someone to power on Syria’s terms. Damascus wants exclusivity in the next Lebanese president, but without its armed forces in the country to impose this, a new officeholder might prove too independent. That’s why we should doubt Sharaa when he says, as he did on Tuesday, that Syria does not intend to return to Lebanon “militarily or in a security capacity.” But it’s also why, in believing that they cannot dominate the Lebanese without an armed presence, the Syrians might be overreaching. The Syrian move into Lebanon in 1976 required a regional and international consensus, as well as an Israeli green light, and was formalized by the Arab League. That’s unlikely to happen again today. In forcing the issue, doesn’t the Assad regime risk provoking a powerful local, regional and international backlash that might ultimately scuttle its plans?
(Both via the The POMED Wire)
Syria believes it can act with impunity. Someone needs the will and the means to exact a price from Syria for its latest adventurism or the situation will continue to deteriorate.
Crossposted on Soccer Dad.
Justice delayed is justice denied. Everybody knows Syria has been behind the rash of murders of Lebanese leaders. Putting off doing anything about the Hariri assassination by having the imbecile UN investigate the matter for years just means nothing will be done.
What to do? If anyone was serious about the matter the civilized countries would get together and give an ultimatum to Syria to replace the current government with something else and turn over all members to an international tribunal of Americans and Euros. All Syrians out of Lebanon and the Syrian intel organization shut down. Failure to conform exactly to all demands immediately will lead to everything Syria’s kleptokratic ruling class values being blown off the map in the shortest time possible, with no allowance for limiting civilian casualties. You Syrians wanted to be ruled by these evil thugs, you pay the price.
Iran, Syria, North Korea, and several other states, there will be no safety for anyone until their governments are overthrown and replaced by some kleptocrat who has a fear of what the consequences for him will be if he disses the civilized world again. Likely the same goes for the Wahhabist Entity too, but that is a more complicated problem.