Showing a bad risk in a few week’s time

Erekat: Barak busy planning incursions – Jerusalem Post – March 13, 2008

Meanwhile, The Jerusalem Post has learned that Fraser will not publicize the report on compliance with the road map obligations he was expected to present at Friday’s trilateral meeting.Rather, according to diplomatic officials, Fraser is expected to present each side with his report, and then pass it – as well as the Israeli and Palestinian responses to it – on to US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who will then decide how to proceed further.

Israel, Russia finalize deal for PA armored cars – Ha’aretz – March 22, 2008

Olmert approved the deal last November, but right-wing parties slammed the decision and military officials criticized the move to permit machine guns to be mounted on the vehicles. As a result, Israel postponed its final approval. The PA wants the armored vehicles to help improve its control over the West Bank and to deter its rival, Hamas.Israeli security sources told Haaretz that the military establishment agreed to let the vehicles be delivered when agreement was reached to forgo the machine guns and to restrict Palestinian police officers to carrying small, personal weapons only. Under the agreement, another 25 vehicles will be stored in Jordan, to be delivered depending on Israel’s satisfaction with how the first round of vehicles are used.

U.S. road map monitors: PA failing in fight against terror – Ha’aretz – March 25, 2008

Specifically, the Americans are concerned that the PA does not engage in the full spectrum of counterterrorism activities, including arrests, interrogation and trial, as it would if it were trying to eradicate the armed wings of Islamic terrorist organizations. Instead, it makes do with trying to “contain” terror – to prevent specific attacks, and to keep Hamas from growing strong enough to threaten Fatah’s rule in the West Bank.The PA security services do occasionally arrest members of Islamic organizations, but they do not then follow up with the other steps in the “chain of prevention”: interrogations, arrests of additional operatives, indictments and trials. Trials generally take place only if the PA is under external pressure, as in the case of the Palestinians who killed two off-duty soldiers out on a hike near Hebron three months ago. And when they do take place, they are generally hasty affairs.

Israel has been complaining about the lack of a “chain of prevention” for years, ever since the second intifada broke out in 2000. Now, it seems that the American monitoring team, headed by General William Fraser, has adopted Jerusalem’s position on this issue. Security coordination between Israel and the PA has deteriorated since the terror attack on Jerusalem’s Mercaz Harav Yeshiva three weeks ago.

Palestinian security officials are angry over what they view as Israel’s lack of faith in them, as reflected in its recent decision to go after four wanted terrorists in Bethlehem itself, rather than informing the Palestinians and letting them try to arrest the men. And while the PA has recently arrested several members of Islamic organizations in the northern West Bank, the Israel Defense Forces and the Shin Bet security service question the significance of these arrests.

(In the interest of full disclosure, yes the article also mentions that the monitoring team presented questions to Israel about “settlements.”)

Terrorist involved in Passover 2002 Netanya Park Hotel arrested – Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs – March 26, 2008

Now released for publication: In a joint IDF and ISA arrest operation overnight at the Bal’a village near Tulkarm, Omar Jabar, head of the Hamas terror organization in Tulkarm area, was arrested. Jabar has been sought since 2002 for his direct responsibility in carrying out the suicide attack at the Park Hotel in Netanya on Passover, March 27, 2002, in which 30 Israeli civilians were killed and 143 were injured.Jabar recruited the contact that dispatched the suicide bomber, introducing him to the head of the Hamas in Tulkarm at the time, Abed Sayad. Sayad admitted in his investigation that the connection with Jabar had already begun in 1994, when the two were imprisoned together.

Israel to make gestures to Palestinians – AP – March 26, 2008

Israel’s defense minister has agreed to transfer police cars, rubber-coated steel bullets and night-vision equipment to Palestinian security forces, officials said Wednesday.The gestures are meant to help peace efforts by strengthening moderate Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in his standoff with the Hamas militant group. But Palestinian officials say the Israeli moves are not nearly enough.

Palestinian carrying two grenades caught at checkpoint – Jerusalem Post – March 26, 2008

A Palestinian was caught at an army checkpoint north of Nablus on Tuesday with two makeshift hand grenades.

(via Yourish)

PA Cops coordinate with terrorists: let them reset bombs in Nablus – Ha’aretz – March 28, 2008 (Hebrew)

“One of the latest reports that infuriated the Minister of Defense came from Nablus, where Israel allowed the [Palestinian] Authority to bring in 500 police to take responsibility for security in the city.According to the report, despite the good intentions of the Palestinian leadership, there is coordination between the police and terror activists. The later neutralize the bombs they have laid when the police tour the casaba and then hook them up again when they leave.”

Translation by IMRA

In Mideast, Rice Urges Cooperation on Security – New York Times – March 30, 2008

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice began a trip to the Middle East on Saturday by calling on Israeli and Palestinian negotiators to find ways to improve security in the West Bank for Israelis and to ease roadblocks there that hamper movement for ordinary Palestinians. The goals are not new, but Ms. Rice is hoping that any steps forward on those issues will reinvigorate talks that suffered a setback after a recent outbreak of violence that killed more than 120 Palestinians in Gaza, many of them civilians, and three Israelis during one week.

New steps aimed at reaching Mideast deal – AP – March 30, 2008

Israel pledged to remove some West Bank roadblocks as a start to “concrete steps” in an agreement Sunday with the Palestinians that is aimed at paving the way for a final peace deal this year.”This is a program that will improve the daily lives of Palestinians and help make Israel secure,” the U.S. said.

Under the plan that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced, Israel will remove about 50 roadblocks and upgrade checkpoints to speed up the movement of Palestinians through the West Bank.

The Israelis also will give Palestinians more security responsibility in the town of Jenin with an eye toward looking at “other areas in turn.” They also pledged to increase the number of travel and work permits for Palestinians and to support economic projects in Palestinian towns.

Question from IMRA – March 30, 2008:

Question: Why is it that when the Olmert team sat down with the others to negotiate this announcement that they did not demand that the Palestinians also bring something concrete to the table?Yes – the Palestinians are going to deploy more gunmen – aka policemen. And they said that they are going to make an effort. But while Israel has measurable performance requirements (the number of roadblocks dismantles, for example) the goals for the Palestinians are extremely vague. How about a goal for the number of weapons that they cease and hand over for destruction by a third party? How about a goal for the number of terrorists arrested, prosecuted and sent to prison? (not just stopped for a moment and then sent on their way) ]

Responding to the final effort – Ha’aretz Editorial – March 30, 2008

Abbas’ weakness in the Palestinian community in general and in light of the Hamas military takeover of Gaza in particular has caused Rice to address most of her demands to Israel. Responding to these demands will improve the atmosphere, even if it does not affect the core issues, does not necessarily increase the strength of the moderates vis-a-vis the extremists in Palestinian society and does not lead to unity in the divided Arab world, as reflected by the summit in Damascus.

The absurdity of the situation, as evidenced by IMRA’s question is (even Ha’aretz admits) that Abbas can grant Israel nothing. Therefore the only concrete concessions are demanded of Israel. Israel, despite demonstrating the unreliability of the PA’s security forces continue to bolster those forces and now outsource more of Israel’s security to these thugs. (From the complete MFA press release, it’s clear that Fatah had an interest in stopping Jabar. Plus a related point as if any were necessary from A Blog for All.)

Part of this American’s fault. Sec. Rice has the information that the PA security forces have consistently failed to do the job they are supposed to. (That’s been the case since 1993.) And yet in the name of enhancing Israel’s “security” she insists that Israel trust the PA.

But why doesn’t the Olmert government through Fraser’s report back at the Bush administration? There can be a case for taking certain risks for peace. However trusting the PA’s security is a demonstrated bad risk. The recent evidence suggests that the risk is any better now with Abbas and Fayyad in charge.

Is Israel so scared of being labeled “against peace” that it won’t push back and tell the Bush administration, not only that strengthening the PA’s security forces won’t help Israel, but that it won’t help President’ Bush’s legacy either?

UPDATE: Please see the related post at Fresno Zionism, who writes about the three elephants that Sec. Rice is ignoring.

Here are some of the elephants that Ms. Rice does not see:Hamas
Hezbollah
Iran

Israel Matzav doesn’t ignore another elephant: Fatah corruption.

THE MOST serious scandal involves former PA Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei, who currently heads the Palestinian negotiating team with Israel. According to a document released by PA ambassador to Romania, Adli Sadek, Qurei deposited $3 million of PLO funds into his private bank account.Qurei was forced to publish a strong denial in the Palestinian media. While admitting that he did take the money, Qurei said he transferred the sum to a PLO bank account. He added that the $3m. were part of a $5m. investment that had been deposited in a bank account under Yasser Arafat’s name.

Qurei has also been forced to deny charges that he and his sons own a cement factory that has been supplying concrete for the construction of Israel’s West Bank security fence and new homes in Jewish settlements in the West Bank.

Israelly Cool! writes about the asymmetries in Israeli gestures to the Palesitnians.

In other words, Israel agrees on a whole range of gestures, including relaxing security measures that have proven to be effective in reducing the number of palestinian terrorist attacks inside Israel, while the PA promises to..try prevent terror. Besides the fact that they supposedly promised to do that at the beginning of Oslo, it is something the success of which can’t really be measured. After all, the palestinians can always claim they have been trying, but haven’t been able to succeed due to any number of factors, all of which are Israel’s fault.

Finally, Boker Tov Boulder adds a different asymmetry that’s more than a little disquieting.

Just one question. Why is it that housing for Arabs is part and parcel of the “peace process,” but housing for Jews is an “obstacle to peace” ??

Finally, Jewish Current Issues demonstrates that in its zeal to move forward, the Bush administration has proven itself positively Clintonesque in its ability to abandon commitments to Israel.

The very essence of the Roadmap was the “constraint of the phases. ” It was precisely the plan’s “sequentiality” that imposed the only discipline possible on the process: no final status negotiations, not even a provisional state, until terrorism was dismantled.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad.