I’m only a tiny bit worried about the talks with Syria, because they’re going to fail. And they’re going to fail, because I doubt Syria will cut ties with terrorists and Iran, which is a deal-breaker for Israel.
Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni commented Thursday on the renewed negotiations between Israel and Syria and said any peace process hinges on Damascus’ renouncement of its support of terror.
“Israel’s primary goal has always been peace with its neighbors. The Syrians have to understand that it entails giving up their support of terror (elements), namely Hamas, Iran and Hizbullah,” Livni said at the onset of her Jerusalem meeting with French counterpart Bernard Kouchner.
There’s one interesting piece of news I didn’t know: Olmert obviously fears Livni’s chances of taking over his position. Why else would he not have her in the loop on this?
The Israeli FM did not comment on the fact that she was kept in the dark on the renewed peace talks by her fellow “Kitchen Cabinet” members – Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who led the initiative. Olmert updated Livni on the joint statement drafted by Jerusalem, Ankara and Damascus just an hour before it was issued.
Remember the last time it looked like Olmert was going to fall, Livni was announcing she was ready to take over Kadima. He bought her silence then. Looks like he’s playing politics with her future as well as Israel’s. Not that I think she’d be much better than Olmert. She’s too ready to give away the farm as well.
Meantime, the Syrians are showing the typical Arab mentality about bargaining with Israel: No concessions, no deals, just give us what we demand and STFU.
Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem told the newspaper “There will not be a situation in which Syria advances even one step (in the peace process) without a full withdrawal from the Golan Heights. This is not a prerequisite; it is our right.”
And oh yeah—we’re talking full withdrawal to the 1949 Armistice lines.
Senior Syrian officials were quoted by London-based Arabic-language newspaper Al-Hayat as saying that the renewed talks with Israel were aimed, among other things, to set a timetable for Israel’s withdrawal to the June 4, 1967 (pre-Six Day War) borders.
Full withdrawal without Syria’s total shutdown of terror operations and breaking off ties with Iran is not going to happen. Even if Olmert wants to agree to it, his country will refuse to follow. Even now, the Golan communities are balking. They point out that every time Olmert has been investigated for corruption and things look extremely serious, he offers up some kind of peace deal to take attention away from his crimes. They’re calling him an “interogee” publicly, a reference to the ongoing investigations.
“The Israeli public will not allow such a strange and irresponsible act that will transfer strategic and settled land to the Arab axis of evil,†he added.
Malka and Katzrin Council head Sammy Bar-Lev issued a combined statement saying that “the Prime Minister’s Office’s declaration which is presently trying in every way possible to pull Olmert away from the prongs of investigation, is a cynical and dangerous act and places personal interests above national ones.â€
Meantime, Israeli analysts agree: Olmert can’t possibly pull this one off. It’s a cynical move on both their parts.
Golan residents can relax. The Golan Heights will apparently not be handed over to the Syrians in the coming years, if at all. Syria has no interest in peace with Israel, just like Israel has no interest is handing the Golan over to the Syrians.
Syria cannot deliver the minimal goods required of it; that is, severing its ties with terror organizations and the Iranian influence in favor of normalization with Israel. Meanwhile, Israel has no desire to provide the Syrians with military positions on the Golan, which would again threaten Israeli communities, or to allow the Syrians access to the Sea of Galilee.
[…] The question which many Israelis must ask themselves is not how much peace we shall receive in exchange for the Golan, as if the Heights were a tradable commodity with a set price, but rather, does Assad really want peace? Would such peace serve his supreme goal, which is the safeguarding of his regime?
The answer to that is negative of course. The hatred for Israel, the external enemy, enables him to maintain absolute power in his country despite the economic and social repression suffered by the masses. The connection with terror groups, Iran, and the Palestinians enables Assad to get along with the Arab world and with his own citizens under the umbrella of hostility to Israel.
I like this part of the analysis the best:
When Assad’s people say that they are willing to engage in negotiations with Israel without pre-conditions, they only mean no Israeli pre-conditions, of course. The Syrians, on the other hand, are taking the pre-condition of getting the Golan for granted.
Of course, the AP does its best to spin the issue anti-Israel by ignoring the fact that the Syrians don’t really want peace. They just want the Golan back. Witness the headline, and angle, to the latest AP story:
Israelis express skepticism on Syria peace talks
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s dramatic announcement that he is negotiating a peace deal with Syria was greeted Thursday with overwhelming skepticism in Israel.Many Israelis appear to believe the embattled leader made the declaration to divert attention from the corruption allegations that threaten to end his term in office, and opinion polls showed Israelis remained wary of withdrawing from the strategic Golan Heights — even in return for peace with one of Israel’s most bitter enemies.
Notice the emphasis on Israeli skepticism, rather than insincerity on the part of Syria. You have to read down to the last two or three paragraphs to find this information:
The nations have fought three wars, their forces have clashed in Lebanon, and more recently, Syria has given support to Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon and Palestinian militant groups.
The sides’ demands in any peace deal are well-known. Syria wants a full Israeli withdrawal from the Golan, and Israel wants Syria to end its support for militants, curb its ties with Iran, and establish full diplomatic relations.
There is not one word about the eighteen years that Syria used the Golan Heights to shell northern Israeli communities. The vague “end its support for militants” supplants facts about Syria hosting and protecting terrorist leaders in Damascus, as well as utterly ignoring the Syrian colonization and subjugation of Lebanon. These are not minor issues. These are what Syria must stop in order to achieve peace with Israel, yet they all fall under the vague phrase “end its support for militants.”
As I said above, the only positive thing about all of this is that I know Olmert can’t carry it off—because the Dorktator dosn’t really want peace. He wants a distraction for his people, and he wants to make it look like the Israelis are the ones refusing to make peace. The AP is already helping him achieve that goal. Count on seeing more of the same from the rest of the non-Israeli media.