Judging from many of the reactions to PM Olmert’s announcement that he would not run again to lead his party, Kadima, it would possible to say that he’d envy President Bush’s level of popularity.
Yossi Klein Halevi writes (h/t Shalem Center):
Olmert is the embodiment of what has been, for Israel, the year of scandal: a president accused of rape, a finance minister accused of massive embezzlement, a deputy prime minister found guilty of forcing his tongue into the mouth of a young woman soldier. Olmert, two years after assuming office and promising to make Israel a more “fun” place to live, leaves us a nation in shame. He went to war in Lebanon to restore our military deterrence and destroy Hezbollah’s military capacity. Instead, he shattered Israeli self-confidence in our ability to defend ourselves, and empowered Hezbollah as the strongest force in Lebanese politics, with an arsenal three times larger than it possessed before Olmert’s war.
Olmert is the first Israeli leader–perhaps the first democratic leader anywhere –to threaten his own country with destruction if it rejected his policies. Israel, he warned, is “finished” if it didn’t withdraw from the West Bank. Yet in failing to defeat Hamas, he has insured the impossibility of a two-state solution for the foreseeable future, leaving us without a political or military option.
Perhaps Olmert’s greatest offense was in debasing our public discourse with terms like “Talansky’s envelopes” and “Olmert Tours,” diverting our attention from the imminent nuclearization of Iran and the growing power of Hezbollah and Hamas. Instead of focusing on Israel’s survival, we have been preoccupied with the melodrama of Olmert’s survival.
Clearly from his address to the nation Olmert didn’t get how out of touch he was.
In the area of security, we strengthened the IDF – we bolstered its strength and allocated enormous resources it had not received in the past. The North is quiet and does not face an immediate threat. Israel’s deterrent capability has been incomparably bolstered.
Jewish Current Issues though cites an expert who presents a much different view of things:
Also, the Iranians have very cleverly created two proxy armies on Israel’s border, one in the north called Hezbollah, and one in the south called Hamas. It is now estimated that Hezbollah has about 42,000 short-range missiles in rockets. Remember a couple of years ago when Israel went to war briefly with Hezbollah. Maybe the estimate then was about 15,000. They have re-armed, they are armed to the teeth, and Israel knows that if it strikes at Iran’s nuclear facilities, that Hezbollah is going to be able to launch an extraordinarily violent retaliatory strike that will probably depopulate the north of Israel. So regardless of who does it under these scenarios, whether it’s the United States or Israel, Israel is going to be the one that’s going to pay the short term price.
But what does Olmert’s announcement mean? Nothing. At least nothing yet. Ynet describes what will eventually take place. Once the Kadima primary takes place and a new leader is chosen for the party:
Olmert’s resignation will entail the resignation of the government in its entirety. The responsibility for the next move will be on President Shimon Peres. After holding consultations with representatives from the various political factions in the Knesset, Peres will be required to task one of the MKs with establishing a new government.
Most chances are that individual will be the chairman-elect of Kadima, if only because it remains parliament’s largest political party.
In any event, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who is also chairman of the Labor party and Olmert’s key coalition ally, cannot be called upon to form a government because he is not an elected member of the Knesset.
Israel Matzav points out that Olmert could hypothetically remain in power (of a caretaker government) until March.
Hashmonean (very fortunately) emerged from hibernation to show what things might be like until new elections are called:
Now, in the running for Kadima Foreign Minister Livni, and former Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz. Each will try to seize the leadership of the Kadima party and then the unenviable task of trying to construct a coalition for governing. The likelihood of Livni accomplishing this appears to me slim should she be elected leader of Kadima, as she will be forced to rely on the existing coalition partners and as exhibited today, that partnership is a farce in name only. Insane amounts of social legislation, benefits packages & assorted goodies & gimmes totalling billions were put to votes today in the Knesset despite official coalition positions not in support, what resulted was wide passing of these proposals (some in only initial first reads) and the dissolution of the coalition members from official position, in effect the largest non-confidence vote imaginable.
Israelly Cool! notes one more insult.
Ever the gentleman, he’s leaving office the same way he stayed: Without taking personal responsibility for any of his actions.
(While the Jerusalem Post praised the announcement and speech, A dignified end, I saw it more the way Meryl did.)
And we’ll give the last word to someone who hasn’t posted in a while, Mere Rhetoric:
You know what’s really awesome? An Israeli political crisis just as the window on stopping Iranian nuclearization is closing.
Crossposted on Soccer Dad.
