Remember the warnings of Hamas, diplomats and self-styled experts?
The wisest policy would be to refrain from any intervention and leave Hamas and the Palestinian people alone. If Hamas’ failure is self-inflicted democracy will live on and the people of Palestine will, should they wish, choose another party at the next election. However, if Hamas is not given a chance to implement its programme of reform in Palestine and its failure is imposed by external players democracy in Palestine will be no more. There will probably be never a second chance for a peaceful political process. There will be another Intifadah.
From Hamas via NPR:
WESTERVELT: But senior Hamas leader Ahmed Yousef, interviewed in Gaza, warns that the Israeli and Western policy of trying to isolate Hamas will backfire.
Mr. AHMED YOUSEF (Senior Political Leader, Hamas): If I pressure you in the core, now, you have to do something. And they’re going to keep squeezing Gaza. I don’t know what – I can’t predict what’s going to happen here.
Analysts say the goal of Israel’s policy of isolating Gaza seems to be to pressure Gazans to turn against Hamas, which has led the area since it wrested control from the Palestinian Authority in June. Other observers warn that the pressure is likely to backfire, creating more volunteers for militant groups and stirring sympathy for Hamas.
While the court rejected arguments that Israel’s border closings amounted to collective punishment, U.N. officials contend that the tactic is empowering extremists who argue that talks with Israel have produced nothing good for Gaza.
“It creates more misery and frustration that feeds into the extremists who say there is no other way but violence,” said the U.N.’s Ging.
The opinion poll by An-Najah University in the West Bank city of Nablus found secular Fatah would take 31.4% of the vote in parliamentary elections against 14.4% for the Islamists Hamas.
The remainder of those who specified a choice were shared among smaller parties.
In a presidential election, 31.4% of respondents said they would vote for the Fatah candidate and 13.4% said they would vote for the Islamist.
A full 15.9% of respondents said they didn’t know how they would vote in either presidential or parliamentary elections. A total 19.9% of respondents said they wouldn’t vote in a presidential election and 19.4% said they stay away from parliamentary elections.
Maybe that’s why Abbas is pushing for elections.
The Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, intends to call presidential and parliamentary elections for April, an aide said Tuesday, apparently in an attempt to head off a constitutional crisis and a further challenge to his authority by the Islamic militant group Hamas.
I’m no fan of Fatah, either, but it appears that (at least on this level) Israel’s policy has had the effect of reducing Hamas’s popularity. Not that it will change anyone’s mind. The folks who believe that the only way to treat an enemy is to engage in talks with them will not have their minds changed by evidence to the contrary. In a different context Noah Pollak observed back in May:
The extent to which Israel’s military victory in the intifada is simply not acceptable for discussion in enlightened quarters is amazing as a matter of cultural psychology.
The idea that enemies can be defeated with words alone is a belief of many in the foreign policy establishment, the media and academia. It seems this is one more indication that the truth is not so simple or that is idea is simply wrong.
Crossposted on Soccer Dad.
