Be very, very skeptical

One of the common memes about Israel’s war against Hamas is that Israel is strengthening Hamas by causing Palestinians to rally around the terrorist group. Of course we heard this for years. It was the reason Israel couldn’t fight Fatah based terror from 1993 to 2003. But of course, Operation Defensive Shield changed that. Israel fought Fatah and Fatah lost. Now Israel’s being lecture: Don’t fight Hamas, you’ll only make them stronger. In other words, Israel’s being advised to “lie back and enjoy” the Hamas terror. And of course the unilateral surrender is wrapped in a cloak of false concern that if Israel fights back it will only make things worse for itself.

In the Washington Post’s report:

Israeli officials have, in recent days, pointed hopefully to indications that support for Hamas within Gaza is eroding. Israeli and Palestinian analysts say Israel’s strategy appears to be to weaken Hamas enough that the group has no choice but to sign a truce on Israel’s terms. But there is a risk that approach could backfire.

Rawiya Shawa, an independent Palestinian legislative council member who lives in Gaza City, said attacks on targets such as mosques and university buildings are uniting the population behind Hamas and neutralizing the internal opposition.

(Notice how no news reports say anything like “Hamas’s efforts to wreak havoc on Israel might backfire and lead Israel to destroy the infrastructure that Hamas has worked hard to build.” Only Israel has to worry about backfiring strategies.)

And of course there was Daoud Kuttab’s offensive op-ed (via memeorandum):

While it is not apparent how this violent confrontation will end, it is abundantly clear that the Islamic Hamas movement has been brought back from near political defeat while moderate Arab leaders have been forced to back away from their support for any reconciliation with Israel.

What’s abundantly clear is that it’s not at all obvious that Hamas will benefit from this war. If Israel miscalculates and ends the war unsatisfactorily, it will benefit Hamas just as the war in 2006 benefited Hezbollah. But if Israel significantly degrades Hamas’ capabilities and kills a number of Hamas’ leaders, Hamas will be weakened.

Contrary to what Kuttab wrote, Egypt (which has enable Hamas to re-arm and fortify its offensive capabilities) blamed Hamas for the fighting.

Now Jeffrey Goldberg reports that a friend of his from Fatah, is rooting for the IAF! (via memeorandum)

I’ve been talking to friends of mine, former Palestinian Authority intelligence officials (ejected from power by the Hamas coup), and they tell me that not only are they rooting for the Israelis to decimate Hamas, but that Fatah has actually been assisting the Israelis with targeting information.

(There is some room for skepticism. Would Fatah really admit to helping Israel? Or are they gauging that Hamas is that unpopular? After all Hamas was supposed to be the good government terrorists and they haven’t delivered a better quality of life for Gaza in the past two years.)

And Hamas isn’t necessarily winning hearts and minds in Gaza either:

[Interviewer] “How many were you?”

[Girl] “Seven.In the other room were my mother, my father, my yonger brother and another sister, who is 13 days old. I say, Hamas is the cause, in the first place, of all wars.”

Those concerns about Israel’s offensive backfiring are the hopes of those who doesn’t wish Israel to defend itself. I don’t think that it’s all “abundantly clear” that Israel will end up strengthening Hamas by destroying it.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad.