The 48-hour cease fire

The 48-hour cease fire idea appears to be taking hold in some quarters, especially, apparently, with Ehud Barak.

The defense establishment is suggesting that Israel use a suspension of operations to carefully study Hamas’s intentions; whether the group is planning to escalate the violence by renewing attacks inside Israel or whether it will opt to stop its rocket attacks altogether.

Defense officials expressed skepticism that Hamas would abide by a two-day truce, and said it would instead use the opportunity to expand its rocket attacks. In this case, officials said, Israel’s offer of a cease-fire and Hamas’s rejection would grant the IDF a greater level of legitimacy for the second stage of the operation – a ground operation inside Gaza.

Furthermore, by agreeing to 48 hours of unilateral cease-fire, Israel would leave Hamas on edge as to when exactly it would launch the second phase of Operation Cast Lead. Also, inclement weather was predicted for Wednesday and Thursday – not optimal conditions for either ground or air assaults.

Is it real, or is it another feint by Barak, the ex-commando who planned (among other things) Operation Thunderbolt, the mission that freed the hostages in Entebbe?

There are reports that Hamas’ military capability has been barely touched. There are reports that Hamas’ military capability has been badly damaged. I am not privy to any special reports, only to reports in the news media.

And maybe the real reason is right here:

The Czech Republic will take the presidency from France on Thursday, and its Foreign Minister Karel Schwarzenberg roundly defended Israel’s actions in an interview with a Czech newspaper Tuesday.

Schwarzenberg, a staunch ally of the United States, said he would not support either side in the conflict, but work as a mediator.

Yes, but he’s the guy who said this:

“Let us realize one thing: Hamas increased steeply the number of rockets fired at Israel since the cease-fire ended on December 19. That is not acceptable anymore,” he said.

“Why am I one of the few that have expressed understanding for Israel?” Schwarzenberg was quoted as saying. “I am enjoying the luxury of telling the truth.”

No, I really don’t think that’s the reason for the cease fire talk. But I don’t think it matters. Hamas is demanding the same thing they always demand: That Israel lift completely the blockade of Gaza in any cease fire. Since that will never happen, neither, I think, will the cease fire.