Here’s what I think is going to happen: The same thing that happened several years ago, when young people across Iran protested, well, the exact same leader of their nation.
The students are going to lose.
Of course, I would absolutely love to be eating these words a few days from now. But you don’t keep a totalitarian regime going without being able to brutally, ruthlessly crack down on dissent. And the reporting of dissent.
There’s very little coming out of the White House about this. Unless you call this statement on Saturday something other than pure crap:
Like the rest of the world, we were impressed by the vigorous debate and enthusiasm that this election generated, particularly among young Iranians. We continue to monitor the entire situation closely, including reports of irregularities.
The Mullahs will win. Sadly.
The mullahs win either way. This is a dispute among adherents of one mullah-backed candidate (Ahmedinajad) against adherents of another mullah-backed candidate (Mousavi). Do not forget that Mousavi, as Prime Minister in the 1980’s, helped found Hezballah and Iran’s nuclear weapons program. He is no reform candidate.
chsw
Quite so. The dissidents are projecting their grievances onto him. Perhaps he will be carried along with the flow of the people rebelling against the tyranny of the mullahs.
Where is the army? I suppose the mullahs have made sure that only loyal officers are in command positions. Plus the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps gets the best weapons, just like with the SS in Nazi Germany. But if the army units came out for the people they could make things much more hairy for the IRGC and the Basiji. That would be the case in even greater degree if they broke open some armories and armed the university students and other young men. Even if they are better equipped and trained, I doubt the IRGC and its comrades could stand up to a million armed revolutionaries. We’re not talking about US Marines and soldiers here. Plus, according to Amir Taheri in his recent book “The Persian Night” there are splits within the IRGC itself. When some see their comrades driven back they might come over to the side of the people.