Elder of Ziyon noted on Wednesday that Israel’s release of Aziz Dweik – a Hamas politician – stirred rumors that a deal for the release of Gilad Shalit is in the works. But then he noted that a Hamas politician “authorized to speak on the issue” did not know if Shalit was alive.
Today Ha’aretz is reporting that Shalit’s transfer to Egypt is “imminent.” (via memeorandum)
The European source said Shalit’s transfer to Egypt was the first stage of the Egyptian-brokered agreement hammered out between Fatah, Hamas and other Palestinian factions, in coordination with the U.S. and with Syria’s support.
The deal would put the Gaza Strip under the leadership of a joint committee subordinate to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, removing it from the control of the government of Prime Minister Salam Fayyad.
There’s a lot here that’s distasteful. Ha’aretz reports that Hamas is insisting on the release of prisoners with “blood on their hands.” If Syria is supporting this deal, it suggests that the American decision to restore diplomatic relations with Syria is related to this deal. Also Jimmy Carter was apparently very much involved in the transaction.
Finally, while he’s far from ideal, the only Palestinian official who has shown any capacity for governing is Salam Fayyad. Removing Gaza from his authority is a sign that Hamas has won a power struggle. Abbas is wholly ineffectual. Of course this also would show that Fayyad has absolutely no power base.
I have to say that there’s a lot here to be skeptical about. Certainly, if the deal as described by Ha’aretz is accurate, and Shalit is released, Israel will have, once again paid an extremely high price for the return of a soldier. Additionally the deal will strengthen the positions of Syria and Hamas, which is not good.
But Ha’aretz reminds us that:
On Tuesday Palestinian news agency Maan quoted Egyptian sources as saying that Shalit was to be transferred from the Gaza Strip into Egypt within hours, a report that Israeli sources denied.
The Astute Blogger is skeptical. Michael Goldfarb is hopeful, but I think he’s wrong that it will help Netanyahu, as I wrote above it will strengthen Hamas and Syria and it will vindicate (at least in the short term) the administration’s efforts to reach out to extremists.
Crossposted on Soccer Dad.
