Let us for a moment ask, “What if the Muslim Brotherhood comes to control Egypt?” Let us in addition argue that this would not be in the form of an Iran-esque theocracy, but a Turkish style Islamist democracy. I wrote an article for We Are For Israel on this question earlier. This is not an inconsequential question.
Egypt could be expected to aid flotillas into Gaza and to make it much easier for arms shipments and other deliveries to enter Gaza. Israel would then likely need to retake the Gaza border with Egypt and/or would need to place more troops on that border than ever before. Israel would additionally need to dramatically increase its military strength all along the Egyptian border because Egyptian troops would not be trusted to prevent incursion by militants, even if they could be trusted not to participate or directly aid in the incursions. Obviously, all previous agreements between Israel and Egypt would be in question either officially or unofficially.
The Palestinian Authority faces the possibility that its greatest supporter, Egypt, would suddenly become a supporter of its arch enemy, Hamas. The PA has been holding “We love Mubarak” rallies throughout the West Bank. Suddenly the PA’s best ally will be Israel. *I guess that I shouldn’t say this publicly because the PA would then be accused of being traitors to the Arab cause. Israel must be a hated enemy and the cause of all evil.
Jordan would have its best allies (Egypt and America) fomenting rebellion within its borders. It is almost a certainty that Jordan’s rhetoric regarding Israel in the months ahead will be much more hostile than it has previously been. This will be so as to avoid being accused of being a friend of Israel. Meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority’s leadership all have applied for and received Jordanian citizenship. This, just in case Jordan turns into a Palestinian state after all.
Saudi Arabia would face a highly hostile Egypt battling for hegemony in the region that will attempt to foment Islamist rebellion in the kingdom at every turn. Worse, for the King and his family, is the clear indication that the United States would abandon its close ally at the drop of a hat in favor of a hostile democratic rebellion within its borders.
So, looking at what is actually happening in Egypt, is it any wonder that the Saudis have told the Obama Administration where to place its proverbial oil rig? Is it any wonder that the Saudis have come to the aid of Mubarak, threatening to replace any aid that America would deny, and likely will or are coming to the aid of the leaders in Jordan and Yemen as well? Is it any wonder that America is no longer seen as a friend and supporter, but now as a potential threat for emboldening revolt? It is indeed a wonder that among Egypt’s best friends, among the Palestinian Authority’s best friends, among the Saudi’s best friends, is Israel!
We now look at a Middle East in which the peoples and nations that were/are at war with Israel find common cause with it against Iran, against Political Islam, and against America’s foment of insurrection.
It is indeed a strange new world.
I figured the moment the PA/Fateh/Abbas started wasting US taxpayer dollars on having pro-Mubarak rallies in Westbankistan, that was the kiss of death.
-ls/cm
“Saudi Arabia would face a highly hostile Egypt battling for hegemony in the region that will attempt to foment Islamist rebellion in the kingdom at every turn.”
the concept of “Islamist rebellion” in Saudi Arabia. of course the .. 7000 Saudi princes don’t encourage that sort of thing *within Saudi borders*. they do, however, support a global takeover of Islam by the 200 year old Wahhabi cult (another attack on Iraqi Shia today. any guesses where the suicide bombers originated?). but, really, politics is gangsterism by other means. you’re more likely to gain insights into this drearily old “strange new world” from Dashiell Hammett novels than from studying international affairs at Georgetown ..
Actually, Pablo, I think “The Godfather” would be a better choice that Hammett for a textbook. The tribal/family character of the Mafia makes it more relevant to Arab politics.