Two conflicting articles from Ynet on whether or not Syria will go to war to get back the Golan Heights:
Yes:
“If military confrontations break out between Syria and Israel, that would be the fulfillment of the general’s plan,” a Lebanese official told Yedioth Ahronoth.
[…] Former foreign minister and Vice President Farouk al-Shara has been marginalized and Foreign Minister Walid Moallem has been banned from hosting American, Arab and European officials.
Arab officials believe Shawkat, Assad’s brother-in-law, wants to drag Israel into a conflict in Lebanon, and possibly Syria, next month.
[…] The United States accuses Shawkat of harboring hundreds of insurgents who killed US soldiers in Iraq. He is barred from the United States.
Shawkat, who has been linked to the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, fears that Assad might hand him over to an international tribunal to ease US pressure on his regime.
No:
Syria is not interested in embarking on a military conflict with Israel in order to win back the Golan Heights, Syrian Vice President Farouk Ashara said Tuesday.
“Israel knows that we do not desire a war. Damascus will always be ready for a response to an Israeli attack but Syria will not initiate one,” Army Radio quoted Ashara as saying.
Neither Israel nor Syria are interested in a war so there is no reason for one to erupt, but Syria is still reinforcing its army and arming Hizbullah in Lebanon, Israel Radio quoted Jerusalem officials as saying on Wednesday.
The officials added that Syria’s declarations that it did not want a war were important but that its actions alone would determine the future.
You pays your money and you takes your choice.
I say this with tounge in cheek, but I almost wish they WOULD attack. It would be an easy win for Israel and morally unambiguous because Syria would be the agressor. The international community would have no reason to whine and the IDF would get some target practice in a conventional battle.
Now, John. You’ve been reading this blog how long and you think the world won’t get pissed at Israel for being attacked by Syria?
I can call it with my eyes shut. Israel should have given back the Golan Heights, Israel should have negotiated with Syria, Israel shouldn’t have built up its military along the Syrian border, Lebanon, Shebaa Farms, cycle of violence, Assad really wanted peace, Israel forced him into attacking her, etc., etc., etc.
The thing that frightens me the most about a Syrian attack is that this one will kill thousands of Israel civilians. And will likely coincide with a Hizbollah rocket barrage. Many, many people will die if Iran gets its wish and attacks Israel through all of its proxies—Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas.
Omri’s upset about chemical or biological warheads. I don’t think Syria will do that, for the same reason Saddam Hussein didn’t do it in the Gulf War—because Israel has nukes, and using nerve gas or bioweapons against Israel is a clear case for nuclear retaliation.
I think the biggest thing going for us now is that Assad doesn’t want peace with Israel, because it keeps his people’s minds off toppling his government. Does he want war, though? I’m not sure.