Majority by assassination

While the Bush administration focuses its hopes for peace in the Middle East on a peace of paper, David Schenker writes of the disturbing developments to Israel’s north in Lebanon’s government by murder

Presidential elections — which began on Sept. 25 and run through Nov. 25 — have only increased the threat to the majority. The president in Lebanon is elected by parliament, and the majority has made clear that although it would prefer to choose by consensus, it will elect the chief executive by a simple majority if no acceptable compromise candidate can be found. The Hezbollah-led, Syrian-backed opposition says it will not recognize a non-consensus president. For its part, Damascus has stipulated that the next Lebanese president should be moqawam, i.e., a supporter of Hezbollah, and “of Arab belonging,” i.e., pro-Syrian. Should the Syrians and the opposition succeed in either toppling the government by attrition or installing a crony like outgoing President Emile Lahoud, the tribunal could be delayed if not derailed. The tribunal, convened at the behest of the U.N. Security Council, appears to be a train that has left the station. But election of a “compromise” president — someone more sympathetic to Damascus — could weaken Beirut’s commitment to and undermine international support for the tribunal. Syria could also scuttle the tribunal by ending March 14th’s control of the government.

How to fight this? Schenker recommends:

For Washington, the key will be to craft a policy to prevent Syria and its Lebanese allies from subverting the government in Beirut. One possibility is to deploy, at Lebanon’s request, international forces — under the auspices of already-in-force U.N. Security Council resolutions — to protect targeted politicians. A more effective but politically difficult option would be to hold Syria accountable for all future political murders in Lebanon.

Notice that his recommendations don’t include signing another treaty or an Israeli retreat from Shebaa Farms or the Golan. Rather, he recommends enforcing existing resolutions. What a novel concept! Still the stakes are high for Lebanon.

Regardless of how Washington proceeds, immediate action is required. The ongoing thinning of the majority raises the very real specter that the results of the 2005 parliamentary elections in Lebanon will be reversed by terrorism. Should this trend of assassinations continue unchallenged, the pro-Syrian opposition, led by the Iranian-sponsored Shiite terrorist organization Hezbollah, waits in the wings.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad.