Iran’s nuclear ambitions

There’s an interesting analysis in a Canadian paper about Israel’s efforts to prevent a nuclear Iran.

The use of the submarines in the Indian Ocean, off the Iranian coast, could spare Israel the need to fly over Arab countries — as it did in 1981, when it flew over Jordan to destroy the Iraqi nuclear reactor near Baghdad.

An Israeli attack from a submarine in the Indian Ocean could spare the U.S. and the Arab countries lots of embarrassment.

Finally, the third “signal.” Although the “secret” was known to many people, Israel allowed the publication Friday of news that Israeli companies are building in Kurdistan a new military and civilian airport. The building and the modern equipment are financed by the U.S.

Needless to say, should the Bush administration or any future administration decide to strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities, this airport in northern-Iraq, close to the Iranian border, could serve as the launching pad for such an attack.

These three signals were accompanied by rare public warnings from Israel’s top political and military leaders.

I didn’t know that bit about a new airport in Kurdistan. But I am not nearly as confident as the author is about his conclusion:

Nevertheless, the U.S. is unlikely to change its current decision that it will not turn to the UN Security Council unless it is absolutely certain that its draft resolution will not be vetoed by Russia and China. Therefore, the U.S. is now engaged on two parallel diplomatic tracks. Relying on past Russian and Chinese assurances that Moscow and Beijing are opposed to Iran’s nuclear plans, the U.S. has joined its European allies in supporting the Russian proposal that Iran be allowed to produce nuclear fuel precursors, but these precursors will be shipped for enrichment in Russia. Should Iran reject the Russian proposal, Washington hopes Russia and China would join in having the security council impose economic sanctions on Iran.

Those “hopes” are all we’ve got right now. Russia is showing signs of retreating to its Cold War mentality (which admittedly isn’t a very big step back) and is using Iran to beat up the U.S. The new billion-dollar weapons deal with Iran makes me think there’s no way in hell Russia is going to vote sanctions over pocketbook. Let’s not forget who sold Iraq most of its weaponry. China has its own aims as well, though I cannot comprehend why they think a nuclear-armed Iran is a good thing.

To top it off, the U.S. Army is of the opinion that Israel alone cannot carry out a successful strike on Iran’s nuclear capabilities this time.

I am not encouraged by this analysis, but it’s good to know about the airbase in Kurdistan.