What if it were palestine?

Three years ago I mocked a New York Times editorial that demanded that Kosovo show that it deserves its independence. I don’t know that Kosovo has demonstrated its worthiness or not. The Palestinian Authority – whether the Hamas section or the Fatah section – has not shown its worthiness despite the aid that the West continues to lavish upon it.So now that the NYT reports Kosovo declares its independence from Serbia.

The province of Kosovo declared independence from Serbia on Sunday, sending tens of thousands of ethnic Albanians streaming through the streets to celebrate what they hoped was the end of a long and bloody struggle for national self-determination.Kosovo’s bid to be recognized as Europe’s newest country — after a civil war that killed 10,000 people a decade ago and then years of limbo under United Nations rule — was the latest episode in the dismemberment of the former Yugoslavia, 17 years after its dissolution began.

It brings to a climax a showdown between the West, which argues that Serbia’s brutal subjugation of Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian majority cost it any right to rule the territory, and the Serbian government and its allies in the Kremlin. They counter that Kosovo’s independence is a reckless breach of international law that will spur other secessionist movements across the world.

I have to wonder: what if it were Palestine?
What if it was Mahmoud Abbas who declared independence? (From whom would be a different matter.)

Would the Muslim world rush to recognize it? Would the West hesitate? Would Israel resist? It wasn’t that long ago the Arafat seemed to threaten that he’d declare independence if certain conditions weren’t met by a deadline.

Nowadays no one talks about Palestinian independence anymore.

In declaring independence, Kosovo’s prime minister, Hashim Thaci, a former leader of the guerrilla force that just over 10 years ago began an armed rebellion against Serbian domination, struck a note of reconciliation. Addressing Parliament in both Albanian and Serbian, he pledged to protect the rights of Kosovo’s Serbian minority.

We know that if it were Palestine there’d be no discussion of Palestine’s Jewish minority as the removal of Jews from Palestine has become a seeming precondition for peace.

Kosovo, a desperately poor, predominantly Muslim landlocked territory of two million, has been a United Nations protectorate since 1999, policed by 16,000 NATO troops. Its unemployment rate is about 60 percent and average monthly wage is $250.Electricity is so undependable that lights go out in the capital several times a day. Corruption is rife and human trafficking threatens to entrench a lawless state on Europe’s doorstep.

The Eastern half of Palestine would be landlocked though Gaza has a port.

Three years ago Daniel Pipes reported that foreign aid to the Palestinians was $300 per person. CAMERA shows that foreign aid has increased when the Palestinian declined, but can’t show if there’s a cause and effect to that relationship. However, a few weeks later CAMERA showed that there was a correlation between foreign aid and terror. Still it’s pretty clear that the Palestinian economy is better than Kosovo’s.

In an outpouring of adulation for the United States, the architect of NATO’s 1999 bombing campaign against Serbian forces under President Slobodan Milosevic, revelers unfurled giant American flags, carried posters of former President Bill Clinton and chanted, “Thank you, U.S.A.” and “God bless America.”Hundreds of people, many waving Albanian flags, celebrated in Times Square. Revelers in cars drove in circles around the area, leading chants whenever they passed the crowds gathered on the sidewalks.

That spirit of exaltation contrasted sharply with the despair, anger and disbelief that gripped Serbia and the Serbian enclaves of northern Kosovo. In Belgrade, Serbia’s capital, as many as 2,000 angry Serbs converged on the United States Embassy, hurling stones and smashing windows.

It’s safe to assume that if Palestine declared its independence we wouldn’t see outpourings of adulation for the United States despite the aid and political support. The reaction in Israel would likely be mixed.

The Washington Post opines in Independent Kosovo:

This logical step toward completing a united and democratic Europe would have occurred years ago if not for the lingering and poisonous nationalism of Serbia and its encouragement by Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Serbian politicians of all stripes have ardently declared they will never accept Kosovo’s independence, while Mr. Putin has prevented the U.N. Security Council from adopting the careful scheme a mediator worked out more than a year ago. European governments frightened by the prospect of Serbian-sponsored violence or a move by Russia to recognize breakaway provinces elsewhere in Europe dithered for months before agreeing to deploy the new E.U. mission.

If Abbas would declare independence would the Washington Post applaud the move? Would it attribute the delay to Israeli resistance?

So far it appears that the backlash against the new state will be containable, and the fears — which were echoed by some American conservatives — overblown. Both Russia and Serbia have backed down a little, swearing off the recognition of other splinter states or the use of violence. Up to 100 countries are expected to recognize Kosovo, including the United States, Britain, France, Germany and most of the other E.U. members. Serbian President Boris Tadic won reelection two weeks ago on a platform of moving Serbia toward the European Union despite its recognition of Kosovo.

I can’t see Abbas or any leader of Palestine running on a platform of reconciliation with Israel. And I can see Israeli leaders opposing an independent Palestine but resigned to it.

The Kosovo government of Hashim Thaci has promised “security for all citizens”; he will need to act aggressively on that pledge and prevent any incitement against the 100,000 Serbs remaining in Kosovo. It is NATO’s job to prevent violence by either community; Western troops will be needed for the foreseeable future. In the end, though, a peaceful and prosperous future in the Balkans will depend on the Serbs. If they choose to break with their ugly history of nationalism and embrace a liberal democratic future inside the European Union, Kosovo’s course can also be smooth. If they choose endless and futile resistance to Kosovo’s independence, the Serbs will isolate themselves from Europe and likely become vassals of Russia. Now is the time for Mr. Tadic and other would-be modernizers of Serbia to match their convictions with courage.

I don’t think that this is just up to the Serbs. Still I’d expect that if this were happening in the Middle East, the Post would be placing the burden of success on Israel.

Hot Air (via memeorandum) makes the case for ambivalence.

… where I come down on Kosovo’s independence is to hope for the best but be aware that it’s likely to encourage some of the world’s worst actors and jihadist revolutionaries to get on with their own separatist schemes.

There’s also a related question: why didn’t Arafat and why haven’t Abbas or Haniyeh declared independence? From what I understand the difference could be what the end goal is. The Kosovar Albanians make up over 90% of what is the territory of Kosovo. They don’t seek any more territory (for now.)

The Palestinians are claiming that they are entitled to a lot more territory than they currently hold. (I’m not just referring to the lack of continuity they have in Judea and Samaria; they want all of what is now Israel.)

Declaring independence would necessitate settling for the current areas alone. Fatah and Hamas might be able fight Israel to a standstill if Israel’s goals are limited. But I doubt they have the ability to capture and hold territory.

But getting back to the beginning, much of the support for independent Kosovo comes from a sense of sympathy for the Kosovar Albanians who were subject to ethnic cleansing less than 20 years ago. Despite the popularity of the Palestinian cause in some circles, I suspect that the less than universal support for an independent Palestine follow from the association of Palestinian nationalism with terrorism. Terror might have successfully put the Palestinian cause on the map, but it also might be the brake that prevents the Palestinians from declaring independence.

Crossposted on Soccer Dad.