Eric Trager had a post a few days ago The Worst Politician Ever?:
Still, one might expect Israel’s political leadership-which overwhelmingly approved the deal yesterday-to declare that Israel is achieving some sort of strategic benefit through the prisoner swap. After all, a prisoner swap only becomes a strategic liability when the adversary believes that it could achieve the release of more prisoners-and all the political benefits that come with it-through future kidnapping raids. For this reason, leaders typically spin prisoner swap deals as somehow enhancing their states’ strategic outlook, aiming to undermine support for future raids among the enemy’s constituency.
Yet Ehud Olmert is hardly your typical leader. Indeed, rather than making any argument for Israeli strength in the aftermath of the prisoner swap, Olmert has declared total failure…
Israel Matzav seconds that motion (via memeorandum):
What’s amazing is that this time, for once in his life, Olmert is actually telling the truth. The ‘swap’ is a total failure, there will be (and is) much sadness and humiliation in Israel about Olmert’s government’s failure in the Second Lebanon War and thereafter, and there will be lots of celebrations on the other side when and if the ‘swap’ is carried out (as now seems inevitable).
He then suggests that PM Olmert draw the requisite conclusion and resign. However, I think that’s where he (and Trager) underestimates Olmert. He is a failure, but not as a politician. As a politician he has managed to defy all expectations and political gravity, staying power despite microscopic popularity and scandals hanging over his head.
Now one of the authors of the Winograd Report, Prof. Yechezkel Dror has weighed in:
Professor Yehezkel Dror, member of the Winograd Commission which investigated the failures of the Second Lebanon War, launched a frontal attack Thursday against Ehud Olmert, clarifying that the prime minister has failed and cannot stay in office.
A year after the committee submitted its final report into the war, Prof. Dror wrote in a harsh article published in the Jewish-American Forward weekly that such a situation would not be possible in any other parliamentary democracy.
“I was sure the prime minister would resign. It’s amazing this hasn’t happened yet. This is not what I expected. It’s beyond my nightmares,” Dror told Ynet on Thursday morning.
Prof. Dror goes on to explain that given Olmert’s political weakness he can’t believe that the Prime MInister is weakening Israeli bargaining positions with no serious consultation.
Dror also expressed his criticism against Olmert in terms of the prime minister’s recent conduct, which is not directly related to the war. He referred to Olmert’s peace initiatives with Syria and the Palestinians as superficial maneuvers and even “a complete spin.”
He explained that these initiatives lacked any deep, long-term and strategic thinking on the prime minister’s part, which he said should be based on professional political-security staff work.
If Olmert had a sense of shame he’d resign, but he doesn’t, so he stays in office. And his political foes have mutually exclusive aims, so that they can’t or wont’ present a united front and force him out. The media still considers him an etrog so the chances of building public outrage (despite the poor poll numbers) are virtually nil.
Olmert has made political survival his ultimate goal. Unless the state prosecutor indicts him, he will survive indefinitely because he’s a great politician. He’s just a lousy prime minister.
Crossposted on Soccer Dad.
