(Bumped)
Gallup is calling the presidential race for Obama, two days before the final vote is in. McCain, Gallup says, will need a miracle to win.
While only 4% of voters remain undecided in Gallup’s unallocated likely voter model, the final poll estimates that a slightly larger 10% of likely voters still have the potential to either change their mind or make up their mind. Even if McCain converts the vast majority of swing voters, victory for him would be highly unlikely since 51% of likely voters say they are certain to vote for Obama compared with 39% who say they are sure they will vote for McCain.
Well, considering that if their poll is wrong, they’re going to look like complete asses, what with polls being their raison d’etre, you’d think I wouldn’t argue with the facts here.
Yeah, well, call me Meryl Quixote. Because there’s an element that this entire election is riding on that no one can give me a satisfactory number for, and it affects every single poll taken. This, in one line, tells you whether or not these polls are accurate:
In the final poll, 38% of U.S. adults identified as Democrats, 34% as independents and 26% as Republicans. Among likely voters, the figures are 39%, 31% and 29%, respectively.
What is the actual representation of voters in the United States? Because poll samples don’t matter one whit if they don’t accurately represent the people who are going to vote.
So the real question is: Does Gallup have an accurate representation of voters, or is this their Dewey Beats Truman moment?
I can’t find a source that I trust to give me an accurate count of Republican voters. Pew says it’s only 27%, but that’s the number of voters who self-identify as Republicans, not the number of registered Republicans. Look at the Gallup figures above. Those are also self-identified, not actual numbers (and they’re different from Pew’s numbers from March).
This is why I don’t trust the polls. Well, that, and the fact that it’s been proven over and over again that people will tell pollsters what they think they want to hear. In other words, people lie to pollsters.
I think I’ll wait until Tuesday night before I declare a winner. Virginia is far from settled yet, and the other swing states are close. It’s going to be a race. Doesn’t matter who gets the popular vote. It’s the Electoral College that counts. Obama can’t intimidate them the way he intimidated the Democratic superdelegates this year.
McCain voters, get your asses out there and vote. And try to convince at least one friend to vote, too. Five if you can.
Just imagine the look on Obama’s face as he gives his concession speech. Surely that’s worth your trying to find five friends to vote McCain with you.
I’m really getting tired of the media-pollsters telling me something is done and over with before it’s happened.
All joking aside but Mr. Peabody’s machine only went way-back in time and never forward. Oh wait, maybe we’re stuck visiting George in 1984?
My hope is that a significant number of people either are lying to the pollsters or saying they’re undecided when they’re not.
I am basing this in part on Michigan’s experience in 2006 when we had a state proposal widely derided as racist–the proposal would have required the state to treat all people equally without regard to race or sex. The inherent racism wasn’t obvious to me.
Anyway, polls showed it a toss-up before the election and it wound up winning 58-42. The usual suspects concluded this was hidden racism but my guess was, especially since the press, the unions, the churches, major businesses, and all other right-thinking sources were opposed to it, that a lot of people just decided they didn’t want to be called racist when they were polled.
Voting is the easiest thing anyone can do to ensure that their candidate wins. If you don’t vote you make sure your guy loses.
You can be sure that the number of people who SAID they voted for the winning candidate will be larger than the number of votes that candidate actually receives.
As to what the punditry will spout, two things are certain:
* They will announce that the results of this election are ‘historic’.
* They will claim that the party which loses the White House is on ‘life support’ and will cease to be a force in the future.
The pundits of the MSM are all a bunch of idiots experiencing group think. If you are a McCain/Palin supporter you have to hope that at this late hour, the same is true for the pollsters.
It disappoints me to hear the election is over, Obama has won and its not even Nov 4. Why is the media speaking for millions of people who haven’t been polled nor have voted yet? They are making me feel that my vote is not worth the time standing in line.
In 2004, almost all the final polls said that it would be close, but Bush would win. Which is…pretty much what happened. There was no evidence that people were lying to the pollsters en masse. But suddenly, in 2008, everyone decided to start lying to all the pollsters? How likely is that?
And while it does look like Gallup’s final prediction is more favorable to Obama than many of the other polls, that doesn’t mean the other polls are saying it’ll be close. Gallup has Obama winning by 11, while just about every other national poll out today or yesterday has Obama winning by about 6. The overall polling picture suggests that Gallup is probably wrong, but only in the margin of victory, not in who’s going to win.
Umm, wasn’t Al Gore making acceptance speeches before his time based on that belief in the polls?
It’s not over till the fat lady sings. I myself, have walked into a booth thinking I’m voting one way and the conscience just wouldn’t let me do it.
Let’s hope there are enough Obama supporters who also have their aha moment in the booth.
What really bothers me is after looking at the pie chart of votes by race, it seems like that’s what it’s coming down to. Why can’t people vote for the person and platform, NOT their nationality/race!!! It said that African americans (13%) are voting 98% Obama and 2% Mccain. That’s extremely disproportionate to past elections when there are many more African American conservatives than that! While some whites are only voting Mcain because he’s like them, and not because they like him! It angers me on both sides of the spectrum!
p.s. I’m a minority and CONSERVATIVE!!
What poll? Noboby asked me or anybody I know. What they take about 50 people in any given city and that is what they base their results on? How lame. And do they report what the actual results were? I think probably not.
I seem to recall from my history classes that 50 out of 50 pundits back in 1948 predicted that Thomas Dewey was going to defeat president Trueman right up to election day. It wasn’t until early on Wednesday morning that it became apparent that they were all wrong. (recall the famous photo of Trueman holding up a paper which has ‘Dewey defeats Trueman’ as the headline) This election is anything but over. We haven’t voted yet and the people, not the talking heads and pundits who have wanted Obama to win for a very long time. McCain voters, we all need to get out there tomorrow and vote and not allow others to call this race until we have had our say. Obama is wrong for America and now is our time to let that be known for all to hear!
I’m reminded of the headline from some time ago, “Dewey Beats Truman”.
I’m Canadian & can’t vote, but let’s hope this is the same thing happening here.
I agree with what is being posted. I have never been polled , no asked me who I was voting for. I keep my politics to myself like many others – conservative Republicans do – Mccain has my vote. I refuse to debate the obamaniacs. I think they will be shocked how close it is going to be…of course they will cry foul if MCain wins, because their polls said different!
I can’t help but think that if the polls were the other way around, you’d all be doing the same they are. Both parties are equally guilty of what the other accuses them of. Since all it’s ever been is finger-pointing and self-sanctifying, we’re a country that gets more and more divided and angry with each passing election. I blame the media for 75% of it, and I blame every single one of us Americans for the rest.
to the honorable Senator McCain and Governor Palen.. and your truly courageous families;; i want to send you an heart felt thank you and prayers of encouragement and protection of our most merciful God and Savior.
i send these same prayers and thanks to all the Armed Forces of the USA. ;;
God bless and keep you all, for your sacrificies and the gift of freedom that you have provided for our country;;
and a special thanks and prayers for Joe and Tito; and all other citizens that have shown great courage to take a stand for their belief in freedom.
God have mercy on America;; GO USA !
be and Win Presidenticy – McCain.
I hope everyone can vote. The line at the San Diego County Registrar (a Republican leaning area) was 4 hours yesterday.
Since I live in Chicago-home of Obambi-I’ve been reminding people of that headline from 1948.
I think it came from the Chicago Daily News…which became the Chicago Lib-I mean TRIBune…who has endorsed Barry.
hmmmm.
I don’t buy an Obama victory and his limp performance in the final 2 weeks of his campaign is a clue that not all is well in Lefty land. Even with all the connivance of the press the word is still getting out on what this man is about.
Unfortunately, he benefited from the strong dislike of Hilary Clinton among even Democratic voters and he was able to remain a blurred figure to voters longer than he normally would have. He doesn’t have an answer to what is now coming out about him and he is just trying to hide from everyone while he hopes his unearned momentum carries him through.
More importantly, polls have recently been ridiculously wrong. Remember these are the same people who said Howard Dean was inevitable especially given his strong antiwar views at a time when the Iraq War was considered be less popular with Americans than Vietnam (sound familiar?).
What I believe what the push pollsters are doing is trying to piggybank Obama’s tremendous popularity among Blacks to all minorities.
In other words they have created a profile of a “minority voter” and automatically assign them as Obama supporters. If you are hispanic, russian, eastern european, canadian or have different circadian rhythms you are a minority and you will vote Obama at least according to pollsters.
I doubt that.
It works great for push pollsters though. If Obama wins they were right, if Obama loses those minority votes were either “underrepresented” or “minority racism” was in play.
Americans are very sharp and are anything but sheeple. That favors McCain.