Interesting. Right now at 8:48 PM, McCain actually leads the popular vote 50 – 49.
Still, I’d like to see some more states for McCain.
Michael Barone wrote out the optimistic scenarios for each candidate. With Pennsylvania apparently gone (even though they only claim 1% of precincts reporting), here’s what to look forward to at 9.
For Obama
* Clear Obama: CO (9), MI (17), MN (10), NM (5), NY (31), RI (4), WI (10). Running total (248).
* Clear McCain: KS (6), LA (9), NE (5), SD (3), TX (34), WY (3). Running total (120).
* TCTC: AZ (10), ND (3). Running total (66).Comments: The most recent polls have shown McCain ahead by only a hair in AZ. We’re assuming Obama does a little better than his current realclearpolitics.com margin of 5 percent in CO. Some Obama enthusiasts may argue that this scenario should give him the 1 electoral vote allotted to the Second Congressional District of NE; I don’t think the few statewide numbers support that. ND may be close, but it’s unlikely to be callable for Obama, particularly since few if any of the people on decision desks have any experience with any close elections in the state.
or for McCain:
* Clear McCain: AZ (10), KS (6), LA (9), NE (5), ND (3), SD (3), TX (34), WY (3). Running total (174).
* Clear Obama: MI (17), MN (10), NM (5), NY (31), RI (4), WI (10). Running total (159).
* TCTC: CO (9). Running total (101).Comments: Optimism gives McCain his home state. And recent polling tends to justify a McCain optimist in calling CO TCTC. Several MI polls have shown high percentages of undecideds (a Bradley effect in a state where Detroit’s Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick was forced out of office and is headed to jail?), but Obama has been pretty consistently running over 50 percent, and the McCain campaign notoriously pulled out of the state a month ago. Have the polls tightened up enough in NM to justify a McCain optimist rating it TCTC? I don’t think so. But perhaps McCain optimism is justified in ND. Note that under these assumptions, McCain passes Obama in electoral votes assigned.
I’m supposed to go to Yeshiva to study with one of my sons tonight at 10:15. I told him that if the election is decided by then, it would be bad news. Hopefully it will still be going on.
