Y’know, I could have told them this, even without access to all the information that the Israeli intelligence services have.
The security establishment painted a grim picture of the aftermath of the upcoming Palestinian legislative elections, warning that a strong Hamas victory would lead to the total destruction of the Palestinian Authority, the only body Israel has been able to negotiate with. Security officials warned that the new situation will have severe repercussions on future dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians.
Describing the “no-win situation” Israel will be forced to reckon with, security officials declared that a significant Hamas win may spur Fatah factions to stir up trouble and resort to violence, perceiving the move as the only way to serve its interests and reach Hamas’s level of popularity. “Everything achieved by Israel and the PA in the past will be lost,” a security official said Tuesday.
The war is coming. I’m now modifying my predictions. If the world decides to take action against Syria or Iran, count on Hezbullah, Al Qaeda, and Hamas to pitch in by attacking Israel. Prior to that, there will be an increase in suicide bombings and other attacks.
No, who was chosen for Israel to negotiate with.
In the 80s the Europeans, the Arab League and State chose Arafat and look where it got them. Then when Bush ignored Arafat Abbas was put forward; by whom?
It seems that with State (that’s where the power is in international politics) there is no rationale or logic when it comes to the region.
Of course if Rice is going to demonstrate another hissy fit (remember her alledged behaviour with Israel’s defence minister to get him to supply the PA with arms and ammunition some months before the “disengagement”?) to get Israel to discuss its demise with Hamas …
Basically, Israel achieved nothing With the PA, but despite the PA.
The PA is basically Fatah and al Aqsah Martyrs Brigade with the help of IJ and Hamas. They have always worked in conjunction, amply demonstrated during the last few months of 2005, and were the useful excuses that Arafat and Abbas deployed to explain away their innocence.
Israel’s is the one government who really has the power to bolster Fatah and the moderate, mainstream Palestinian politicians.
If Israel, for example, met with the Palestinian leadership, held discussions with them, released more prisoners or handed over more small parts of territory from Zone C to B, or B to A in the West Bank, then Palestinians will get the encouragement they need to show that negotiations are the way forward and that they can achieve results.
If Palestinians cannot see any results from negotiations then they will turn to extremes.
What exactly does this security official contend was accomplished in negotiations with the PA?
I don’t think that any greater misfortune has befallen Israel than the illusion that there is a negotiating partner. Everything has gone downhill since the lame duck Reagan Administration opened contacts with the PLO in December 1988.
As Amir Taheri recently wrote, wars end when the loser admits defeat. The U.S. military prevented Israel from wiping out the PLO in Lebanon, and the UN Security Council has never allowed Israel to claim the fruits of its military victories over its Arab adversaries.
Perhaps the collapse of the PA will bring about a change. But I doubt it. Sharon wanted to consolidate Israel’s hold on certain West Bank settlements in exchange for the Gaza disengagement, but not even the Bush Administration would go along, so disengagement became a mere unilateral retreat. And retreat is the only form of unilateralism that the international community will accept from Israel.
Lewis: Israel did all of those things for the PA when Arafat was at the height of his strength.
In return, he unleashed the Oslo War.
There is no peace partner for Israel, Arafat or no. Not when 65% of palestinians say that suicide bombing is an acceptable means of “resistance.”