The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs has a breakdown of terrorist attacks before and during the so-called “truce” (the palestinians call it the “tahdia,” which does not mean truce), complete with graphs.
There were a total of 2,990 terrorist attacks in 2005. The breakdown:
Gaza 2004: 2,637
Gaza 2005: 1,205Samaria 2004: 751
Samaria 2005: 677Judea 2004: 288
Judea 2005: 379Green Line 2004: 212
Green Line 2005: 195
Notice that the level of terror attacks stayed the same or rose in the West Bank and Israel. Terror attacks were halved in Gaza. Why? Two reasons. First, the terrorists deliberately slowed down terror attacks before it was certain that the Gaza withdrawal would go through, so there would be no reason to cancel it. (In the last days, terrorists stepped up their attempts to make it look like the Israelis were retreating out of fear of them.) Secondly: There were no more Jews to terrorize in Gaza–ergo, terrorist attacks in Gaza would perforce go down, because now the terrorists have to sneak past the well-guarded border in order to murder Jews. Which brings us to Significant Fact Number Three: Kassam rocket attacks went up in the last year.
Kassam attacks 2004: 309
Kassam attacks 2005: 377
These are the only terrorist attacks that don’t have to sneak past the border guards. It is proof that there is no truce, no “hudna,” and no “tahdia.” If you need more proof, there is this:
Regarding the number and level of warnings in 2005, there was no real change in the terrorist organizations’ motivation to attack Israeli targets. The number of monthly warnings remained for the most part fairly high.
The accompanying graph shows that terror warnings have increased since the disengagement was completed.
The good news: Fewer terrorist attacks have been successful. The number of Israelis murdered by terrorists declined 60% over 2004. 45 Israelis were murdered in bombings in 2005. 117 were murdered in 2004. Successful terrorist bombings went down from 15 in 2004 to 7 in 2005.
The big question, of course, is this: If the numbers of terror warnings and attempted terrorist attacks did not significantly decrease in 2005, why were the number of suicide bombings halved?
Many people are pointing to the separation barrier as a major reason. I have, in the past, credited the barrier with cutting the number of suicide attacks. While I still think it is a major factor in preventing suicide attacks, it is not the only factor. The hard work of the Israeli intelligence agencies, security services, police force, and the IDF are what has lowered terror attacks. 160 would-be suicide bombers were arrested last year. There were 578 warnings of impending terror attacks. Anyone who thinks that Mahmoud Abbas is preventing terrorist attacks with that phony truce is ignoring the numbers–which have been available throughout the year, and which are constantly ignored by the mainstream media outlets. If you do see these numbers referenced, you can bet the farm they will be quoted as showing that the “truce” is working.
It is not.
It is a sham, it has been a sham, and it was meant to be a sham from the get-go. The numbers don’t lie: 2,990 terror attacks in a year breaks down to eight terror attacks per day, with another 1.5 attacks per day foiled in some manner.
It is hardly a “truce” when terrorists try, ten times a day, to murder Israelis.
Remember this the next time you read that Israeli defensive actions are “violating” a “shaky truce” that has “held” since the last year.
Jerusalem Post has the best headline of the day:
I do believe that’s an Islamic Jihad square marked off in the Bingo card.
The good news: Fewer terrorist attacks have been successful. The number of Israelis murdered by terrorists via nailbomb declined 60% over 2004. 45 Israelis were murdered in 7 suicide bombings in 2005. 117 were murdered in 15 bombings in 2004.
I believe those are the total numbers killed, not just the suicide attacks. The suicide attack fatalities have also gone down about 60%, from 55 to 23.
The hard work of the Israeli intelligence agencies, security services, police force, and the IDF are what has lowered terror attacks.
Just curious, why do you think they have been more successful this year than in the past?
Dave,
I corrected the post, thanks.
The IDF and the security services have been more successful this year for several reasons. 1) Their targeted assassination of terrorist masterminds removed the senior terrorists from Hamas and other groups. Also, the targeted assassinations had the major terrorists going underground for long periods of time. A terrorist on the run cannot plan and execute terror attacks. When the Hamas refused to give out the names of the people replacing its leaders, it was a pretty good sign that they were having problems with their day-to-day operations. Junior members are doing the bombing operations, which causes more “work accidents” and fewer successful attacks.
2) Aggressive targeting of terrorists, including gathering information on upcoming terrorist attacks, contributed. The last suicide bombing that took the life of Lt. Uri Binamo is a measure of how well the intelligence services are working. That terrorist did not make it into Israel due to the checkpoints that were looking for him. It’s just a shame he took Lt. Binamo with him.
This has been an ongoing operation. Deaths by terrorist attacks have been going down steadily since Operation Defensive Shield was implemented, and again 3) once the separation fence went up. The numbers are available on various Israeli websites, and I believe I have a few posts with the annual statistics. I’ll look around and see if I can find them.
Re the suicide bombers: I wish we could make a deal with them whereby they agree to blow themselves up in a specially designated place. We, in turn, we’ll let their senders have a receipt that says that we do not object to the 72 virgins business.
“Just curious, why do you think they have been more successful this year than in the past?”
If this knowledge were in public domain, they would hardly be that successful, don’t you think, Dave?
(A nice Jewish way to answer a question by a question)
Just curious, why do you think they have been more successful this year than in the past?
I think targeting the leadership is right plan.
Ultimately, the Palestinian population are the major victims here, just as the German and Japanese civilians were in WW II. Not the victims of Israel, mind you, but like their counterparts in Dresden, Tokyo, Berlin, Hiroshima, and Nagasaki, victims of their leadership. Palestinian society is fed a steady diet of unbelievably vicious anti-Jewish propaganda, and any who stray from the dogma are murdered without the slightest pretense of a trial or even a fair hearing. The fact we’re funding this exercise in enforced lunatic hatred baffles me.
I am not sure I agree with your point 1, Meryl. Targeted assassinations of a hydra-like body? Unless it is a very high level terrorist master, which may cause a disarray for pure shock value, rubbing out an operational level person does hardly slow down their activity. There is no special knowledge or experience to the suicide bomber act, and the logistics are fairly simple – undortunately.
I probably should have added “arrests” to the list. The IDF and security forces have also arrested hundreds of terrorists. You can’t blow yourself up in prison.
But Snoopy, you do remember the chaos Hamas was in after the IDF got Yassin and Nasrallah, don’t you? There were interviews with Hamas terrorists on the run, going underground, moving constantly to stay out of the sights of the IAF’s Hellfire missiles.
That contributes to the lessening of attacks. And again, if you wipe out the senior bombmakers, what is left are the junior bombmakers–who make a lot more mistakes.
I think the real heroes, though, are the Israelis who live undercover in the territories, and report news of upcoming terrorist attacks or the whereabouts of wanted terrorists. Those are very, very brave men.
“But Snoopy, you do remember the chaos Hamas was in after the IDF got Yassin and Nasrallah, don’t you?”
Right you are, and I agreed with this – the shock value of it is great.
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And yet, removing even a low level of institutional knowledge is a good thing. Think back on how many times you’ve heard of bomb factory ‘accidents’ in Gaza, or suicide bombers who mistakenly blow themselves up before their place in line gets close to the soldiers.
Explosives are inherently dangerous, and everything that can be done to enhance the screw-up capability of the terrorists is a good thing.
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Myth: “Killing a terrorist leader of a hydra-headed organization doesn’t stop terrorism.”
Fact: It won’t stop terrorism. Nothing will “stop” terrorism because it is such an efective tool. But assasinating terrorist leaders will slow terrorism. For one thing it eliminates an experienced and possibly charismatic enemy. More importantly, it inflates the price of an individuals willingness to participate in such activity. No military expert will tell you with a straight face that Hamas stopped its attacks because it changed its political views. It stopped its attacks because its cadres were sick of dying all the time. Even a professional and effective organization like Hamas has only a few hundred military ‘leaders’ (equivalents of our JCO’s. When one fifth or one third of them have been taken out, it has a drastic effect on organizational efficacy.
Myth: Criminal justice is the way to solve terrorism.
Fact: If nothing else has been learned in the past five years, this myth has been proved wrong. It was the strategy that Europe took prior to and after Sep. 11. It was the strategy (if you can call it that) that America took prior to Sep. 11. Europe has had enormous failures on this front (release of the Hamburg co-conspirator, release of numerous Spanish suspects). America has had some pretty spectacular failures in its military confrontation with Al Qaeda too, but can point to some successes too. In the case of Israel, criminal convictions of terrorists are relatively easy to get and are commonly pursued. But it is by no means a detractor to Palestinian’s willingness to participate in the activity. That’s because most Palestinians in the territories are already living in prison-like conditions, so a stint at Megiddo (Israel’s primary security prison)isn’t such a bad thing. More importantly, any Palestinian who serves time in an Israeli prison for security charges is automatically given a lifetime pension which is enough to support a family’s basic needs. Thus being convicted of terrorism by Israeli courts is an economically attractive exercise.
Myth: The security fence being built around the West Bank will stop terrorism in Israel.
Fact: It will dramatically slow it (it already has), but it won’t stop it. One of the most fascinating untold stories of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the last two years was the tunnel war in Gaza. Palestinians were furiously digging tunnels, under borders and under Israeli troop fortifications. The Israelis were furiously trying to detect them and destroy them. But it was the Palestinians who won that battle–they built more tunnels than Israel could find. It was a classic case of high tech vs. low tech (the Pentagon calls it asymetric warfare), and the low-tech won. More than anything else, it was the unwinability of that battle that finally changed the IDF’s mind about the propriety of continuing the Gaza occupation. Now, though, the tunnels are continuing–from Gaza and eventually from the West Bank too. The wall will never be impregnable by a single suicide bomber small enough to squirm through a rathole.
Does that mean that the wall is a mistake? Absolutely not–as I said, it impedes terror. But to assume that it will end it is a mistake.
Myth: Making a suicide bomb is such a simple technology that eliminating bombmakers does nothing to stem the supply of future bombmakers.
Fact: This myth, propounded by every ‘counter-terror expert’ in the world, was exploded by Operation Defensive Shield. Suicide bombs are not on the level of fabbing a semiconductor chip, but they are about as complex as garage engineering gets. They also tend to fail frequently and they tend to explode prematurely too. A good suicide belt is the work of a masterful mechanic with excellent metalworking, chemistry and electrical skills. A pipe bomb it isn’t. The U.S. military’s single greatest failure in Iraq is that it hasn’t eliminated enough bombmakers. If it can fix that flaw, Iraq’s politics will change overnight.
(a version of this posting is up on samjaffe.com)
Absolutely correct, Meryl. Rocket attacks by the Hamas/Fatah have increased in recent months.Sderot has been a big victim of this, and Ashkelon too, since now, after “disengagement” the terrorists can operate farther north. There have been several deaths in these attacks over the years, children and adults, not just in Sderot, but in neighboring kibutzim and moshavim (villages) too, tragically enough. And if something isn’t done, there could certainly be more deaths on the way as well, which is why Ehud Olmert must be voted out.
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It’s a security fence – not a wall.
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… another unreported trend – for obvious reasons – is the growing number of Palis who are ratting out their own side.
The Israelis cannot easily penetrate this tight, clan-based society with undercover agents. They depend largely on electronic surveilance and informants.
The informant stream largely dried up in the early years of Oslo as Arabs saw the shabby treatment Israel gave to its South Lebanese allies after withdrawing in the north, and how many Pali informers were abandoned in the wake of the peace process.
That collaborating now appeals is testimony to the disgust most Palis have for their leadership, and to their dawning realization that they aren’t going to win this.
No wall, fence, barrier, whatever you choose to call it, will ever stop everyone 100% of the time. There are no absolute guarantees, of course, but you can slow the process down considerably and that may be enough. A suicide bomber who has some time to think about what he’s doing may decide that his 72 virgins can wait and that maybe he’d be better off marrying his cousin and getting a job at the Ford plant in Dearborn, where he can support Hamas as militantly as he wants without the inconvenience of getting large parts of his body smeared all over the furniture.
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